Author Archives: Mark Rivest

S&P 500 –  Bullish Sentiment Extreme – 06/21/24.

Sentiment indicators measure trader/investor belief in market/ stock direction.   They are generally viewed as contrary indicators.  Extreme high bullish sentiment relates to tops, extreme low bullish sentiment with bottoms. Polling market participants is one way to measure sentiment.   Market Vane Corporation – Bullish Consensus  measures futures market sentiment  by following the trading recommendations ofContinue reading “S&P 500 –  Bullish Sentiment Extreme – 06/21/24.”

Long – Term Analysis of Asian Stock Markets

Four Asian stock markets reveal interesting long-term patterns. The weekly Vietnan Stock Index (VN30) courtesy of Trading View shows its action since 2021. The VN30 – November 2021 to November 2022 decline formed an extended Elliott wave Impulse pattern, which implies the first phase of a larger developing bear market.   Note that the subsequent bullContinue reading “Long – Term Analysis of Asian Stock Markets”

 Nvidia and the Strawberry Moon

On 06/20/24 both Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) and the Nasdaq Composite had Key Reversal days. A key reversal does not occur very often but is very reliable when it does. After an up-trend: The Open must be above yesterday’s Close, The day must make a new High, and The Close must be below yesterday’s Low. TheContinue reading ” Nvidia and the Strawberry Moon”

S&P 500 – Hits Long – Term Trendline – 06/18/24

The 06/12/24 blog “The Incredible Shrinking U.S. Stock Market”  illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) could find resistance at the rising trendline connecting the peaks made on 07/27/23 and 03/28/24.  Also noted   “In the next few trading days this line is in the area of SPX 5,470 to 5,480”.  It  took the SPX more thanContinue reading “S&P 500 – Hits Long – Term Trendline – 06/18/24”

The Case for a Rapid U.S. Stock Market Decline – 06/14/24.

The sharp Rusell 2000 (RUT) drop 06/12/24 to 06/14/24 could be the prelude to a larger decline.  Volume Profile analysis supports this theory. The Volume Profile method places volume on a vertical axis matching volume with price levels.   This helps to define support/resistance areas.   The widest part of Volume Profile is called “Point of Control”Continue reading “The Case for a Rapid U.S. Stock Market Decline – 06/14/24.”

The Amazing Colossal Divergence!

The 06/13/24 blog “Quality Divergence”  examined the short-term bearish divergence between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC). The 06/12/24 blog “The Incredible Shrinking U.S. Stock Market”  illustrated the intermediate degree bearish divergence between the IXIC and Nasdaq new highs. Both of these important indicators are puny compared to the amazingContinue reading “The Amazing Colossal Divergence!”

The Incredible Shrinking U.S. Stock Market

On 06/12/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq Composite(IXIC) made new all-time highs.   How can the U.S. stock market be shrinking?  The answer is illustrated in the Nasdaq new highs chart courtesy of Barchart.com. The process of shrinking –  52 – week highs has been underway for several months.   Note that at each  lowerContinue reading “The Incredible Shrinking U.S. Stock Market”

Long – Term S&P 500 – Fibonacci Price and Time Relationships -06/07/24

The 05/16/24 blog “Updated S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 05/16/24”  illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming an Elliott wave – Expanding Flat correction from the January 2022 peak.  This is still the most likely wave count; however, the peak of the presumed Primary wave [B] has exceeded its main targetContinue reading “Long – Term S&P 500 – Fibonacci Price and Time Relationships -06/07/24”