Mark Rivest

U.S. Stock Market Forecast – Late 2024

Long – term S&P 500 (SPX) price patterns could provide clues to the direction of U.S. stocks in the second half of 2024. The 07/20/24 blog “Examination of S&P 500 – July Tops” looked at seven examples of what happened with the SPX after significant July peaks. Two of the examples, post July 2011 andContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Forecast – Late 2024”

S&P 500 – Short – Term Resistance – 08/09/24

Recent sentiment and momentum evidence suggest the S&P 500 (SPX) could rally into mid – September 2024. Fibonacci analysis indicates an important barrier the bulls need to overcome. First a look at short -term momentum. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates some interesting clues. The BigCharts.com Slow Stochastic is very effective in catchingContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short – Term Resistance – 08/09/24”

Huge VIX Spike Up – August 2024

Did the gigantic S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) move up on 0/05/24 signal a significant bottom? The weekly VIX chart courtesy of Trading View gives perspective to the huge spike. On 08/05/24 VIX reached 65.73 which is second only to what happened in the March 2020 stock market. The big difference is that in MarchContinue reading ” Huge VIX Spike Up – August 2024″

Support Areas for S&P 500 – August 2024

Volume Profile analysis indicates where the S&P 500 could find support during the month of August 2024. Volume Profile puts market volume on a vertical axis which illustrate where volume is relative to price. The wider the volume bar the greater the potential support/resistance. The widest volume bar is called “Point of Control” (POC). TheContinue reading “Support Areas for S&P 500 – August 2024”

U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield- Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis.

Long- and short-term Fibonacci time and price relationships imply an important U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield (TYX) bottom could be made late August/early September 2024. The weekly TYX chart courtesy of Trading View examines the long-term picture. One of the main aspects of Elliott wave analysis is that corrections of movements are usuallyContinue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield- Fibonacci Time and Price Analysis.”

U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 08/02/24

Yield/rate for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury bonds could make an important bottom late August to early September 2024. The 02/01/24 blog “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 02/01/24” illustrated that a short-term rally of U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) could be complete, and the next phase downContinue reading “U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield – Elliott Wave Count – 08/02/24”

Could August be an Awful Month for Stock Bulls?

Sometimes a market trend can change in as little as a 30 – minute bar. Longer – term changes can come on the cusp of a new year, or perhaps a new month. U.S. stocks started August 2024 with a vicious downturn. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of BigCharts.com shows the action sinceContinue reading “Could August be an Awful Month for Stock Bulls?”

Nasdaq 100 – Elliott Wave Count – 07/31/24

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is at a crossroads. The action on 08/01/24 could determine the near – term course for U.S . stocks. The daily NDX chart courtesy of Trading View shows the first alternate Elliott wave count. The NDX from its 07/10/24 all-time high has a very clear Elliott wave count. The general formContinue reading “Nasdaq 100 – Elliott Wave Count – 07/31/24”

Nasdaq 100 – the New Downside Leader

Throughout the 2024 U.S. stock rally the Nasdaq Composite and its sub index Nasdaq 100 (NDX) were the upside leaders. Since their respective all-time highs things have been different. The performance of the three main U.S. stock indices and NDX from their all-time highs to their recent decline bottoms are as follows. Dow Jones IndustrialContinue reading “Nasdaq 100 – the New Downside Leader”

Rotation Within the U.S. Stock Market

On July 11, 2024 there was a large move up in U.S. small cap stocks as measured by the Russell 2000 (RUT) stock index. Correspondingly on the same day there was a large drop in technology stocks. Prior to July 11, 2024 technology stocks were the main sector pushing U.S. stocks higher, small caps significantlyContinue reading “Rotation Within the U.S. Stock Market”