Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Is History Repeating?

Comparing November 2021 with November 2025 This website’s prior blog examined S&P 500 (SPX) November seasonal patterns.  November 2025 – SPX decline is like what happened in November 2021.  A repeat of that prior drop could happen in late 2025. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened late 2021 to earlyContinue reading “Is History Repeating?”

November – Most Important Month for the S&P 500

Almost all markets have seasonal tendencies.  Knowing which months are seasonally bullish or bearish is essential to trading extended price movements.   Counter seasonal trends are also important.  When a market moves against its seasonal pattern it could be heralding a major trend change.   November 2025 could be signaling a major trend change for U.S. stocks.Continue reading “November – Most Important Month for the S&P 500”

Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak

Powerful bull markets for both Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and U.S. stocks began on 04/07/25.  The BTCUSD peak on 10/06/25 could be a sign of an approaching top for U.S. stocks. The 09/14/25 blog “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025” examined the relationship between BTCUSD and the S&P 500 (SPX) from 2022 to 2025.  The weeklyContinue reading “Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak”

S&P 500 – Alternate Elliott Wave Count – 11/14/25

The 11/13/25 blog “U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025” illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle.  The sharp move down during the open of the 11/14/25 SPX trading session presents an alternate wave count.  The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “S&P 500 – Alternate Elliott Wave Count – 11/14/25”

U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025

On 11/12/25 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made a new all-time high unaccompanied by the other two main U.S. stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX), and the Nasdaq Composite.  Since January 2000 this momentum divergence has signaled important U.S. stock market peaks. However, several of these signals have occurred in 2025 – all have failed. Continue reading “U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025”

The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Two

The 10/25/25 blog “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector” noted that the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) had been a factor in the surge up of U.S. stocks.  Recent action implies this leading sector is still bullish. The weekly SOX chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s happened.   The 10/25/25 blog noted. “Weekly RSI continues toContinue reading “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Two”

Elliott Wave – Invalidation Points

Elliott wave theory is best known as a market forecasting tool. It’s also very effective in identifying points where a forecast is wrong.  S&P 500 (SPX) recent action illustrates specific points where a forecast became invalid. The 10/26/25 blog “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 10/24/25” Noted that if the SPX moved above 6,813.85Continue reading “Elliott Wave – Invalidation Points”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – November 2025

Measuring market sentiment can determine when a trend could terminate. Market price peaks usually correspond with high bullish/optimistic sentiment.  In declining markets bottoms are near high bearish/pessimistic sentiment. Long and short-term U.S. stock market sentiment entering the November trading month are at historically high bullish levels.  The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – November 2025”

Bullish Pieces of an Elliott Wave Puzzle

The 10/26/25 blog “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 10/24/25” illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle.   The invalidation point for this pattern was SPX 6,813.85. The 30 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View shows what happened. On 10/27/25 SPX gapped above theContinue reading “Bullish Pieces of an Elliott Wave Puzzle”