Fear sends stocks lower; hope lifts them. Because fear is more intense than hope, most stock bear markets reach their climax in a single day.
Stock bull markets can peak over a period of several weeks, sometimes months. What happened in the U.S. stock market on 11/04/26 may have been the final peak of the 2026 bull market.
The daily charts for the Financial sector ETF (XLF), Materials sector ETF (XLB), Consumer Staples sector ETF (XLP), and Health sector ETF (XLV) illustrate their recent action.
As a stock bull market matures fewer stocks participate in the rally. At some point the main stock indices reach final peaks, after which some stocks could continue to rise.
On 08/05/26 the Dow Jones Industrial Average made its all-time high. On 10/06/26 – S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached their all-time highs. On 11/04/26 – XLF, XLB, XLP and XLV made all-time highs.
A bearish key reversal bar occurs when a new high is reached, after which selling pushes the bar below the prior bar low. This phenomenon signals a potential transition from an uptrend to a downtrend. Volume on key reversal bars is higher than the prior bar volume.
On 11/04/26 – XLB, XLF, and XLV had key reversal bars. XLB volume was higher on 11/04/26 vs. volume on 11/03/26. XLF, XLV, and XLP all had higher volumes on 11/04/26 vs.11/03/26.
The weekly Technology sector ETF (XLK) examines its long – term view.
Since April 2025 – XLK has been the main force behind the U.S. stock bull market. Its upside performance far exceeds the main U.S. stock indices and all other stock sectors. This former bull market leader is now the bear market leader.
XLK has declined 20.2% from its October 2026 peak, generally a decline of 20% is considered a bear market.
The movement from April 2025 to October 2026 is a clear Elliott – Impulse wave. Note that wave “4” is an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle.
Weekly RSI is at 40.00; the oversold zone begins at 30.00. The current RSI implies more downside action.
Minimum downside target is around wave “2” which is near a Fibonacci .618 retracement of the April 2025 to October 2026 bull move.
XLK could reach 123.00 to 138.00 sometime in late November 2026.
