Category Archives: Uncategorized

U.S. Long -Term Treasury Yield Hit a High Point

On 05/22/25 the CBOE 30 – Year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) hit 5.15 the high of a multi – year bull move made on 10/23/23. The daily TYX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the most likely Ellott wave count. The 05/17/25 blog “Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25”Continue reading “U.S. Long -Term Treasury Yield Hit a High Point”

Bullish and Bearish S&P 500 Scenarios – 05/16/25

Elliott wave analysis reveals two courses the S&P 500 (SPX) could take in the coming weeks. On a bar chart the SPX rally after 04/07/25 has several Elliott wave interpretations.  Using line charts sometimes clarifies the Elliott picture.   In this case it reveals two possible scenarios. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustratesContinue reading “Bullish and Bearish S&P 500 Scenarios – 05/16/25”

Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25

There’s a high probability that the U.S. 30 – year Treasury Yield (TYX) has completed a multi- month Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. The 05/11/25 blog “The Treasury Triangle” illustrated that TYX was probably forming an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle since October 2023.  These structures are sideways corrective patterns which sub divide into fiveContinue reading “Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25”

The Treasury Triangle

There is no predestination in Elliott Wave theory.   The mass mind like the individual mind can change direction, there are always alternate Elliott wave counts.  The CBOE 30 – Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) may have completed a fascinating alternate Elliott wave count. The 02/02/25 blog “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates?” noted.Continue reading “The Treasury Triangle”

A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates? – Part – Two

                        The 02/02/25 blog “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates?” noted “In the coming months U.S. Treasury yields/rates could have a dramatic rise”.  The dramatic rise may have begun last week. The weekly U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Bond yield (TYX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long – term picture. TheContinue reading “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates? – Part – Two”

Choppy Stock Rally

The S&P 500 (SPX) move up from the 03/13/25 bottom has the choppy look of an Elliott wave corrective pattern. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com updates the bigger picture. The BigCharts.com Slow Stochastic indicator is very effective in identifying market turns. So far, Slow Stochastic has not reached the overbought zone which beginsContinue reading “Choppy Stock Rally”

Something Different has Happened

When markets undergo a major change in trend there’s usually a dramatic signal, something out of the ordinary that strongly implies a new trend.  On 03/04/25 something happened in the U.S. stock market that had not occurred in fifteen – month rally that began in October 2023.  First, we need to get the proper perspectiveContinue reading “Something Different has Happened”

The First Elliott Wave Down – 02/28/25

On 02/28/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) appears to have completed an Elliott – Impulse wave from the all-time high made on 02/19/25.  If so, this could be the first wave of a developing bear market that could continue for months. The SPX 15 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. An interestingContinue reading “The First Elliott Wave Down – 02/28/25”

Long – Term S&P 500 Forecast – 02/21/25

Assuming that on 02/19/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) completed a long-term Elliott wave pattern, its possible to forecast the next bear market. There are two main categories of Elliott waves, Motive and Corrective.   Motive waves represent the main trend and sub divide into five – waves. Corrective waves retrace the main trend and sub divideContinue reading “Long – Term S&P 500 Forecast – 02/21/25”