Category Archives: Uncategorized

Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25

There’s a high probability that the U.S. 30 – year Treasury Yield (TYX) has completed a multi- month Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. The 05/11/25 blog “The Treasury Triangle” illustrated that TYX was probably forming an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle since October 2023.  These structures are sideways corrective patterns which sub divide into fiveContinue reading “Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25”

The Treasury Triangle

There is no predestination in Elliott Wave theory.   The mass mind like the individual mind can change direction, there are always alternate Elliott wave counts.  The CBOE 30 – Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) may have completed a fascinating alternate Elliott wave count. The 02/02/25 blog “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates?” noted.Continue reading “The Treasury Triangle”

A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates? – Part – Two

                        The 02/02/25 blog “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates?” noted “In the coming months U.S. Treasury yields/rates could have a dramatic rise”.  The dramatic rise may have begun last week. The weekly U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Bond yield (TYX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long – term picture. TheContinue reading “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates? – Part – Two”

Choppy Stock Rally

The S&P 500 (SPX) move up from the 03/13/25 bottom has the choppy look of an Elliott wave corrective pattern. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com updates the bigger picture. The BigCharts.com Slow Stochastic indicator is very effective in identifying market turns. So far, Slow Stochastic has not reached the overbought zone which beginsContinue reading “Choppy Stock Rally”

Something Different has Happened

When markets undergo a major change in trend there’s usually a dramatic signal, something out of the ordinary that strongly implies a new trend.  On 03/04/25 something happened in the U.S. stock market that had not occurred in fifteen – month rally that began in October 2023.  First, we need to get the proper perspectiveContinue reading “Something Different has Happened”

The First Elliott Wave Down – 02/28/25

On 02/28/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) appears to have completed an Elliott – Impulse wave from the all-time high made on 02/19/25.  If so, this could be the first wave of a developing bear market that could continue for months. The SPX 15 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. An interestingContinue reading “The First Elliott Wave Down – 02/28/25”

Long – Term S&P 500 Forecast – 02/21/25

Assuming that on 02/19/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) completed a long-term Elliott wave pattern, its possible to forecast the next bear market. There are two main categories of Elliott waves, Motive and Corrective.   Motive waves represent the main trend and sub divide into five – waves. Corrective waves retrace the main trend and sub divideContinue reading “Long – Term S&P 500 Forecast – 02/21/25”

Short-Term S&P 500 – Downside Target

On 02/19/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) made an all-time high unconfirmed by the other two main U.S. stock indices – Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite. This was the five – year anniversary of the SPX – all-time high just before the 2020 – Covid crash. On 02/20/25 intraday the SPX had declined 1%Continue reading “Short-Term S&P 500 – Downside Target”

A Turn in the U.S. Stock Market Tide – 02/19/25

On 02/19/25  the S&P 500 (SPX) made  a new all – time high  unaccompanied by the other two main U.S. stock indices – Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite.   This bearish divergence occurred on a fascinating  Day. The weekly SPX courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened. The SPX late session high onContinue reading “A Turn in the U.S. Stock Market Tide – 02/19/25”