There are no perfect market indicators. Traders can however increase their chances of success by understanding how an indicators behaves by itself, or in conjunction with other market indicators. Recently I’ve begun a study of the Commodity Channel Index, the following is a description of the indicator. “The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures the currentContinue reading “Using the Commodity Channel Index”
Category Archives: Momentum
VIX Makes a New Low – 12/08/23.
On 12/08/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) moved above it’s 12/01/23 high and the top made on 07/27/23. Corresponding with the new SPX – 2023 high was a new low in the S&P 500 – Volatility Index (VIX). The new VIX low implies U.S. stocks could rally into early January 2024. The daily SPX chartContinue reading ” VIX Makes a New Low – 12/08/23.”
Treasury Yields Near a Bottom – 12/07/23.
For several months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. stocks and U.S. government debt yields/rates. The recent manic U.S. stock rally since late October corresponds with the U.S. 30 – year Treasury yield (TYX) decline. Near – term the TYX appears it could be making a bottom. The daily TYX chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “Treasury Yields Near a Bottom – 12/07/23.”
Possible S&P 500 Intermediate Top Made on 12/01/23.
The 11/26/23 “Time Cycle Turn late November 2023” examined a potential S&P 500 – Fibonacci time cycle based on prior peaks and noted. “The week beginning 02/18/20 to the week beginning 01/03/22 is 98 – weeks. Projecting 98 – weeks from 01/03/23 targets the week beginning 11/20/23. On this time scale a leeway of oneContinue reading “Possible S&P 500 Intermediate Top Made on 12/01/23.”
Echo From the Past
The Dow Jones Industrial Average could soon be repeating a pattern from the 1960’s. The action of the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the week of 11/27/23 to 12/01/23 was like the second stage of a rocket igniting. The daily Dow Jones Industrial Average chart courtesy of BigCharts.com (DJIA) shows what happened. After an alreadyContinue reading “Echo From the Past”
Estimating the Next U.S. Stock Market Top
Evidence from the S&P 500 (SPX) – Slow Stochastic and RSI provide clues to when an important U.S. stock market peak could occur. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com shows what’s happening. On 12/01/23 the Slow Stochastic had a bullish lines cross strongly implying the SPX rally could continue. The bull cross happened whenContinue reading “Estimating the Next U.S. Stock Market Top”
S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 11-30-23.
The 11/29/23 blog illustrated the S&P 500 (SPX) appeared have begun an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle that began on 11/28/23 at 4,540.51. Today on 11/30/23 the SPX broke below 4,540.51 invalidating the Ending Diagonal Triangle pattern. The SPX move below 4,540.51 was marginal and appears to have completed an Elliott wave corrective pattern.Continue reading “S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count 11-30-23.”
Potential Stock Rally Climax – 11/22/23
The relentless U.S. stock rally that began on 10/27/23 could be in the climax phase. The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates the long-term view. Both weekly Slow Stochastic lines have reached the overbought zone above 80%, implying a top could come soon. However, weekly MACD has a bullish lines cross hinting atContinue reading “Potential Stock Rally Climax – 11/22/23”
Crude Oil Update – 11/20/23
The Crude Oil rally that began on 11/16/23 continued today 11/20/23. The daily Crude Oil continuous contract chart (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View shows what happened. In addition to bullish line crosses for RSI and Stochastic there was also a break above the declining trendline from 10/20/23. Traders exited 50% of a half position ofContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 11/20/23”
Technology Stock Blow Off Top?
Most of the gains in the main U.S. stock indices since the 10/27/23 bottom can be attributed to the Technology sector. The manic move up in tech stocks could be the terminal phase of the bull market that began in October 2022. The daily chart for SPDR Select Sector Fund – Technology (XLK) courtesy ofContinue reading “Technology Stock Blow Off Top?”
Four Dimension Trading 