Category Archives: Momentum

  Russell 2000 – Update – 05/03/24

May, 6 2024 could be an important day for the Russell 2000 (RUT)  and the U.S. stock market.  A strong move up could open the door for the RUT and other U.S. stock indices to make new 2024 highs.  A significant move down implies a resumption of the decline that began in late March 2024. Continue reading ”  Russell 2000 – Update – 05/03/24″

U.S Stock Market Momentum Remains Bearish

U.S. stocks had a wild ride on 05/01/24  – U.S. FOMC interest rate announcement.  By the end of the 05/01/24 session the  huge rally after the FOMC press conference had been completely retraced.  Daily and hourly momentum remains  bearish, implying the next wave of  post March 2024 bear move may have begun. The daily S&PContinue reading “U.S Stock Market Momentum Remains Bearish”

Russell 2000 Relative Weakness to the S&P 500

During stock bull markets indices usually trend together.  Divergences of indices within a bull trend could be the prelude to a significant decline.    The monthly Russell 2000 (RUT) and S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View shows their relationship during the secular bull market 2009 to 2021. For most of the time bothContinue reading “Russell 2000 Relative Weakness to the S&P 500”

Revised S&P 500 – Fibonacci Time Cycle

The 04/21/24 blog “Potential S&P 500 Bottom – Early May 2024”  illustrated the S&P 500 could make an important bottom on 05/03/24.   The size of the S&P 500 (SPX) rally since 04/19/24 makes that forecasted bottom date a low probability.   If the SPX resumes its decline 05/17/24 could mark a significant bottom. The daily SPXContinue reading “Revised S&P 500 – Fibonacci Time Cycle”

Watch the U.S. Treasury 5 – Year Yield

For several months the focus has been on when the U.S – FOMC will cut short -term interest rates.   In the meantime, rates/yields have been rising on long term – 5-to-30-year U.S. Treasury securities.  The monthly 5 – year Treasury yield (FVX) chart courtesy of Trading View  shows what’s been happening. After rising for moreContinue reading “Watch the U.S. Treasury 5 – Year Yield”

Russell 2000 – Clear Elliott Wave Pattern

The Russell 2000 (RUT) Elliott wave count from 03/28/24 to 04/24/24 implies more downside action. The one – hour RUT chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s been happening. The RUT decline from 03/28/24 to 04/19/24 was an extended Elliott Impulse wave.  The subsequent rally was  a three – wave  correction topping almost exactly atContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Clear Elliott Wave Pattern”

Using VIX to Find S&P 500 Bottoms

Upward spikes of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) usually correspond to significant S&P 500 (SPX) bottoms.  The big question is how large of a VIX upward spike?  The size of a VIX spike varies depending on the nature of the SPX decline.   For the current SPX decline that began on 03/28/24 the Relative Strength IndexContinue reading “Using VIX to Find S&P 500 Bottoms”

Nasdaq Adds Fuel to the Bearish Fire

From  October 2022 to  March 2024  the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) lead the way, gaining 31% vs   S&P 500 (SPX) up 28% and  Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) up 22%.   On 04/19/24  IXIC declined 2.05% vs. SPX down .88%.  The DJI was up .56.   The IXIC dramatic drop on 04/19/24 implies more downside action for U.S.Continue reading “Nasdaq Adds Fuel to the Bearish Fire”

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Momentum

Weekly momentum indicators imply more downside action for the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Russell 2000 (RUT). The weekly SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates three momentum oscillators. The lower line for weekly Slow Stochastic has only reached 30%.  The oversold zone begins at 20%. Weekly RSI is in the upper part of the neutralContinue reading “S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Momentum”

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 – Important Support Zones

The Volume Profile method identifies potential support for the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000. Volume profile places volume on a vertical axis and identifies support/resistances areas. The wideset volume cluster is called Point of Control (POC)  which represents the strongest potential support/resistance.   Price is drawn to or is repelled by POC. The first dailyContinue reading “S&P 500 and Russell 2000 – Important Support Zones”