Mark Rivest

Watch the Nasdaq Composite on 10/10/25

At the open of the main trading session on 10/09/25 both the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) and S&P 500 (SPX) made new all-time highs then quickly declined. The other main U.S. stock index, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lagged below its all-time high made on 10/03/25. It’s possible that on 10/10/25 only the IXIC could reachContinue reading “Watch the Nasdaq Composite on 10/10/25”

Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025

Seasonal patterns for U.S. stocks are bearish from mid – August to October and bullish from November to April. U.S. stocks have rallied through September which is statistically the most bearish month. With the bearish season nearly complete, does this mean several more months of rallying? It’s possible however the S&P 500 (SPX) has notContinue reading “Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025”

Dow Jones Industrial Average Converging Trendlines

Three converging trendlines could be resistance for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI). The weekly DJI chart courtesy of Trading View Illustrates the long – term view. The trendline connecting January 2022 and December 2024 peaks could be reached during the week of 10/06/25 to 10/10/25. Sometimes prior support trendlines could become resistance. In thisContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial Average Converging Trendlines”

Rising VIX and Rising Stocks

For several weeks the Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have both been trending higher. Could this be the prelude for an important SPX peak or another false sell signal. The daily SPX and VIX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their relationship since May 2025. Normally VIX and SPX move in oppositeContinue reading “Rising VIX and Rising Stocks”

Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Relationship

The Dow Theory was developed in the early twentieth century. One of the theories’ main principles was the relationship between the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJT) – previously the Rails Average. A bearish divergence between the two averages was a signal of a looming bear market. A bullishContinue reading “Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Relationship”

Short – Term S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count – 09/26/25

The S&P 500 (SPX) decline from the 09/23/25 peak appears to be corrective. If so, the SPX could reach a new all-time high sometime next week. The 15 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the intraday action. There are always alternate wave counts in Elliott analysis. This chart shows the bullish interpretationContinue reading “Short – Term S&P 500 Elliott Wave Count – 09/26/25”

Bull and Bear Levels to Watch – 09/26/25

After the S&P 500 (SPX) bottom on 04/07/25 there were two mid – April declines of 6%. The subsequent rally has been persistent with only shallow drops. Could the SPX decline after the 09/23/25 peak be another shallow decline? There are two price levels to watch during the 09/29/25 to 10/03/25 trading week. The dailyContinue reading ” Bull and Bear Levels to Watch – 09/26/25″

U.S. Treasury Yields Trending Higher – September 2025

On 09/17/25 the U.S. – FOMC lowered short – term interest rates by 25 – basis points. A few minutes after the announcement the U.S. 30 year – Treasury yield (TYX) bottomed out and began rising. The weekly TYX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long – term picture. Since mid – 2023 -TYXContinue reading “U.S. Treasury Yields Trending Higher – September 2025”

S&P 500 Reaches 6,666!

The 09/13/25 blog “S&P 500 at 6,666?” noted the S&P 500 (SPX) hit 6,600 which was the bull’s eye of a Fibonacci price relationship with the SPX bull market in August 1987. Also noted was that the main U.S. stock indices rarely turn on round numbers. The SPX made a major bottom in March 2009Continue reading “S&P 500 Reaches 6,666!”

Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025

Since early 2022 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have roughly traded together. Perhaps the BTCUSD peak in August 2025 is heralding a bear market for both indices. The weekly BTCUSD and SPX chart illustrates their relationship since late 2021. On 11/10/21 BTCUSD made a significant peak. On 01/04/22 SPX made an important peakContinue reading “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025”