Mark Rivest

Technology Stock Mania

The rally in U.S. stocks since the March 2023 bottom has been very selective. While some sectors are lagging, the Technology sector has led the way up. This sector as measured by the SPDR Select Sector Fund – Technology (XLK) has reached the area of its all-time high made in December 2021. A significant doubleContinue reading “Technology Stock Mania”

Bitcoin and Nasdaq Composite Connection

Bitcoin in U.S. dollars (BTCUSD) has a close relationship of trending with the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC). Since April 2023 the two markets have separated. Its possible the current BTCUSD bear trend is a warning sign for a significant IXIC decline. The weekly BTCUSD and IXIC chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their relationship since NovemberContinue reading “Bitcoin and Nasdaq Composite Connection”

U.S. Stocks Thrusting Up

Several weeks ago, it appeared the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming an Elliott wave – Inverse Horizontal Triangle from the 06/17/22 bottom. This wave count is now invalid. Recently this website noted that the SPX may be forming an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle from the 10/13/22 low. This wave count could stillContinue reading “U.S. Stocks Thrusting Up”

History of VIX Topping Signals – 2007 to 2022

A VIX topping signal occurs when the VIX makes a higher bottom vs. a higher S&P 500 (SPX) top. Sometimes there can be more than one signal before the SPX records its ultimate bull move high. Recently there was a VIX topping signal that was subsequently invalidated. On 06/09/23 the VIX made a new lowContinue reading “History of VIX Topping Signals – 2007 to 2022”

Closer to a Top Than a Bottom

The action of U.S. stocks continues to be amazing. On 06/09/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) ended the session up from the prior session close. Yet for most of the trading day more stocks on the NYSE declined than advanced. At the close of the 06/09/23 session 33% of NYSE stocks advanced vs. 64% declining. It’sContinue reading “Closer to a Top Than a Bottom”

VIX Topping Signal

Momentum for U.S. stocks continues to be bearish. On 06/08/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) ended the session up .62, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed .50%, Nasdaq Composite was up 1.02%. Yet, through most of the day there were more stocks declining than advancing. There’s a good chance U.S. stocks could soon decline. However, actionContinue reading “VIX Topping Signal”

Leader and Laggard

Today 06/07/23 the Russell 2000 (RUT) composed of small – cap stocks continued the upward surge that began 05/31/23. The daily RUT chart courtesy of Trading View shows its recent movements. On 06/07/23 the RUT increased 1.78%. The 06/07/23 performance of the three main U.S. stock indices is as follows. Dow Jones Industrial Average +.27%.Continue reading “Leader and Laggard”

Bull Market Rally vs. Bear Market Rally

In bull market rallies stock indices trend together. Making new highs at about the same time and declining together. Moves up during large bear markets tend to be more erratic. A comparison of the post October 2022 U.S. stock market rally with a prior bullish phase reveals some interesting insights. The U.S. stock rally thatContinue reading “Bull Market Rally vs. Bear Market Rally”

Bullish Resuscitation

For more than a month the U.S. stock market momentum has been weakening. As the market climbed it seemed to be gasping and wheezing as fewer stocks participated with each uptick. Death of the rally appeared imminent. Then on 06/02/23 the U.S. May Payroll report showed the economy was stronger than expected – theContinue reading “Bullish Resuscitation”

Divergences Continue – 06/01/23.

Today 06/01/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new post October 2022 rally high unaccompanied by either the Dow Jones Industrial Average, or the Nasdaq Composite. A bearish “Rule of the majority signal. Additionally, the VIX low today was 15.58 vs. its 05/01/23 reading of 15.53. This higher VIX bottom retains the VIX topping signal.Continue reading “Divergences Continue – 06/01/23.”