Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Crude Oil Update – 06/28/23

In early April and early June, Saudi Arabia announced Crude Oil production cuts.  In both instances price rallies were brief.  From the perspective of supply and demand, if supply is reduced price should rise – unless there’s a decrease in demand.  The inability of Crude Oil to have a sustained rally implies global economic weaknessContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 06/28/23”

Start of the Final Rally?

The 06/21/23 blog “Shallow Correction – 06/21/23” noted the SPX could bottom in the 4,330 area.  On 06/26/23 the SPX bottomed out at 4,328.08. The SPX 30- minute chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The decline after the peak labeled Minuette wave (b) was an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT).  AfterContinue reading “Start of the Final Rally?”

Probable Short-Term Bottom – 06/26/23

Today 06/26/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) ended the session down 19.50 points, with 67% of NYSE stocks advancing vs. 32% stocks declining.  This bullish divergence implies the SPX may have made a short – term bottom today or could bottom early on 06/27/23. The SPX 15 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View updates theContinue reading “Probable Short-Term Bottom – 06/26/23”

Potential Fibonacci Time Ratio Turn Due – June 2023

The prior blog detailed a potential Spiral Calendar turn date for U.S. stocks in June 2023.  Using a different methodology and two different U.S. stock market peaks also reveal a potential turn due in June 2023. U.S. stocks in late 2018 were in a significant decline, which appeared particularly ominous because it was occurring duringContinue reading “Potential Fibonacci Time Ratio Turn Due – June 2023”

Potential Spiral Calendar Turn Due – June 2023

Christopher Carolan’s 1992 book “The Spiral Calendar”  explains how he discovered and developed a method of forecasting market turns using lunar cycles.  Chapter 10 of the book is called “Future Forecasts”  and illustrates how the Spiral Calendar could pinpoint market turns years or even decades into the futures.   One of those forecasts –  made inContinue reading “Potential Spiral Calendar Turn Due – June 2023”

Shallow Correction Complete?

On 06/21/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) declined .52% while the Advance/Decline was almost flat.  Today 06/22/23 the SPX was up .37% while the NYSE Advanced/Decline line was 2.3 to 1 in favor of declining stocks.  The hourly chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the short-term action. The SPX failed to reach the target support zoneContinue reading “Shallow Correction Complete?”

Shallow Correction – 06/21/23

From 05/25/23 to 06/16/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) was in a strong and steady rally.  Corrections of these rallies are usually short and shallow.  The crowd recognizes the trend and are eager to buy a decline. Those holding long are reluctant to sell.  The drop from the 06/16/23 peak could be shallow.  The hourly SPXContinue reading “Shallow Correction – 06/21/23”

S&P 500 Topping Zones

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is signaling a potential S&P 500 (SPX)  topping zone.  The Bullish Percent Index  is a breadth indicator that shows the percentage of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals. This indicator is good at identifying developing  bearish stock market momentum.  There are usually several bearish divergences before anContinue reading “S&P 500 Topping Zones”

Bitcoin and Nasdaq Composite Connection

Bitcoin in U.S. dollars (BTCUSD) has a close relationship of trending with the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC).  Since April 2023 the two markets have separated.  Its possible the current BTCUSD bear trend is a warning sign for a significant IXIC decline. The weekly BTCUSD and IXIC chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their relationship since NovemberContinue reading “Bitcoin and Nasdaq Composite Connection”