Author Archives: Mark Rivest

U.S. Stock Market Decline Continues

Today the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new post 07/27/23 decline low and invalidated the presumed Expanding Flat pattern illustrated in the 08/12/23 blog. The 2 – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading view illustrates the action. The choppy decline from the 08/04/23 peak opens the possibility for several Elliott wave counts. The so farContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Decline Continues”

S&P 500 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Count – Update 08/11/23

The 08/10/23 blog noted that the S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an Elliott wave extended Impulse wave at the 08/09/23 bottom.  The pattern after the 08/09/23 low was expected to be  a developing Elliott wave -Inverse Expanding Flat. The 5 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Expanding Flats areContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Count – Update 08/11/23”

S&P 500 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/10/23

The prior blog noted that if the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below the 08/09/23 bottom it could open the door for a move down to the SPX 4,385 to 4,410 area.  What happened was a marginal move below the 08/09/23 bottom and another bullish momentum divergence. The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View examinesContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/10/23”

Breaking Bullish Momentum Divergences

When the main trend of a stock  index is up, multiple bullish momentum divergences usually signal an opportunity to go long.   When the main trend of a stock index is down, multiple bullish momentum divergences are frequently broken.  When this happens, it could open the door for more downside action. The one – hour S&PContinue reading “Breaking Bullish Momentum Divergences”

Examination of July to October Stock Market Declines

The have been three instances in the past twenty – five years when the S&P 500 (SPX) made an important top in July and an important bottom in October.  A study of these declines could provide clues to a potential SPX July to October 2023  drop. Market forecasting is similar to weather forecasting.   By studyingContinue reading “Examination of July to October Stock Market Declines”

      S&P 500 Breaks Another Support Level

Growing evidence indicates U.S stocks could be in a multi-week decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the short-term view. Early in the 08/04/23 SPX  session stocks rallied on bullish economic news.  In a bullish trend the rally would likely continue until the end of the session orContinue reading ”      S&P 500 Breaks Another Support Level”

Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy

The recent Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt may have surprised some people.  For those following S&P 500 – stock sectors, it probably came as confirmation that  the U.S economy could be weakening.     The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View compares it to three stock sectors. The 07/16/23 blog “S&P 500 –Continue reading “Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy”

Fitch Downgrade

Fitch Rating on 08/01/23  downgraded its U.S. debt rating from “AAA” to “+AA” which  reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years.  The downgrade triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks.  The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. The 08/02/23 decline broke below the 07/27/23 “Key Reversal” bottomContinue reading “Fitch Downgrade”

Rising Long-Term Interest Rates – Part Two

The 07/27/23 blog “Rising Long-Term Interest Rates – 07/27/23” illustrated a bullish Elliott wave count forecasting a move in U.S 30-year Treasury yields (TYX) above the October 2022 peak.  Point & Figure chart analysis identifies potential resistance points on the upside path.  Markets are battlefields between bullish and bearish forces.  Point & Figure charts provideContinue reading “Rising Long-Term Interest Rates – Part Two”