Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Crude Oil Update – 10/24/23

The 10/21/23 blog “Crude Oil Update – 10/20/23”  illustrated that Crude Oil (CL2!) had peaked at a Fibonacci .66 retracement of its prior drop.  The top came at a Fibonacci .66-Fibonacci time ratio. The 30 – minute CL2! – chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Today 10/24/23 CL2! – broke decisively below importantContinue reading “Crude Oil Update – 10/24/23”

Clues From the Consumer Staples Stock Sector

The SPDR – Consumer Staples Select Sector fund (XLP) is usually one of the most bullish sectors in the U.S. stock market.  During 2023 it’s performance relative to the general stock market has been bearish.  XLP’s recent action indicates U.S. stocks could continue declining into early November 2023. The weekly XLP chart courtesy of BigCharts.comContinue reading “Clues From the Consumer Staples Stock Sector”

Crude Oil Update – 10/20/23

At the close of trading on 10/13/23 it appeared that Crude Oil (CL2!) had completed a post-crash bounce.  During the week of 10/16/23 to 10/20/23 – CL2! – made additional upside progress.  The move up from the 10/06/23 bottom still appears to be a bear market rally which could be complete. The daily CL2! –Continue reading “Crude Oil Update – 10/20/23”

Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks – Part Two

Today 10/19/23 the yields for 5, 10, and 30  – year U.S. government  debt made new 2023 highs.   Correspondingly U.S. stocks as represented by the S&P 500 (SPX) declined .85%. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates the action. At the SPX low on 10/19/23 it had retraced .699 of the rally from 10/03/23Continue reading “Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks – Part Two”

Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks

Today 10/18/23 the U.S. stock market represented by the S&P 500 (SPX) declined 1.34%.  U.S. interest rates represented by the U.S. government 30 – year yields (TYX) climbed .95%.  A continuation of this trend during the next two weeks could trigger a mini crash for U.S. stocks. The 10/15/23 blog “Catalyst for a Stock MarketContinue reading “Rising Interest Rates, Falling Stocks”

Catalyst for a Stock Market Panic

A sudden move up in longer-term U.S. interest rates/yields could trigger a panic in U.S. stocks. For several months the Elliott wave patterns for the U.S. 30- year Treasury Yields (TYX) have been exceptionally clear.   The 09/21/23 blog “Upside Target for U.S. Treasury Yield” noted that TYX could continue climbing into mid or late OctoberContinue reading “Catalyst for a Stock Market Panic”

Crude Oil Shorting Opportunity – 10/13/23

The 09/17/23 blog “Crude Oil Elliott Wave Pattern – 09/15/23” noted a potential broad topping zone for Crude Oil between 91.50 to 94.80. The 09/27/23 blog “Crude Oil Topping Zone” noted  Crude Oil could reach a rising trendline in the 92 area on 09/28/23 or 09/29/23. The 09/28/23 blog “Probable Crude Oil Top – 09/28/23”Continue reading “Crude Oil Shorting Opportunity – 10/13/23”

Dramatic Bearish Reversal for U.S. Stocks – 10/12/23

The prior blog “S&P 500 – Rallies Deep into Resistance Zone – 10/11/23” noted. (The sharp S&P 500 (SPX) rally could be nearing a top.  Action on 10/12/23 could determine if it’s a top in a bear market rally or a signal to move higher.) Today 10/12/23 the SPX moved marginally above the high madeContinue reading “Dramatic Bearish Reversal for U.S. Stocks – 10/12/23”

S&P 500 – Rallies Deep into Resistance Zone – 10/11/23

The sharp S&P 500 (SPX) rally could be nearing a top.  Action on 10/12/23 could determine if it’s a top in a bear market rally or a signal to move higher. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com updates the action. The 10/07/23 blog “Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks?”  illustrated SPX – Fibonacci resistance atContinue reading “S&P 500 – Rallies Deep into Resistance Zone – 10/11/23”