Author Archives: Mark Rivest

The First Bear Market Peak?

The 11/28/25 blog “December 4, 2025, an S&P 500 Peak?” noted that lunar cycles and momentum evidence implied the S&P 500 (SPX) could make an important top on 12/04/25. Elliott wave patterns and momentum hint that the SPX high on 12/05/25 may be the first peak in a developing multi month bear market. The dailyContinue reading “The First Bear Market Peak?”

The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Three

The 10/25/25 blog “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector” noted that the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) had been a factor in the surge up of U.S. stocks.  On 10/29/25 both SOX and the S&P 500 (SPX) made post April 2025 rally highs.  In the subsequent decline SOX was weaker than SPX, declining 16% vs. SPX 5%Continue reading “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Three”

Price Divergence Between Bitcoin and S&P 500

The 11/16/25 blog “Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak” examined the time dimension relationship between Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and U.S. stocks.  Evidence indicated that U.S. stocks could be forming a significant peak. A focus on the price dimension relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 (SPX) comes to the same conclusion – U.SContinue reading “Price Divergence Between Bitcoin and S&P 500”

December 4, 2025, an S&P 500 Peak?

The 11/23/25 blog “Is History Repeating” illustrated the similarities between the S&P 500 (SPX) decline in November 2021 and November 2025 and noted.  “Intraday momentum supports the bullish scenario.  The 30 – minute RSI has several bullish divergences implying that the selling is exhausted.  There’s a good chance SPX could rally in the next fewContinue reading “December 4, 2025, an S&P 500 Peak?”

Is History Repeating?

Comparing November 2021 with November 2025 This website’s prior blog examined S&P 500 (SPX) November seasonal patterns.  November 2025 – SPX decline is like what happened in November 2021.  A repeat of that prior drop could happen in late 2025. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened late 2021 to earlyContinue reading “Is History Repeating?”

November – Most Important Month for the S&P 500

Almost all markets have seasonal tendencies.  Knowing which months are seasonally bullish or bearish is essential to trading extended price movements.   Counter seasonal trends are also important.  When a market moves against its seasonal pattern it could be heralding a major trend change.   November 2025 could be signaling a major trend change for U.S. stocks.Continue reading “November – Most Important Month for the S&P 500”

Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak

Powerful bull markets for both Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and U.S. stocks began on 04/07/25.  The BTCUSD peak on 10/06/25 could be a sign of an approaching top for U.S. stocks. The 09/14/25 blog “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025” examined the relationship between BTCUSD and the S&P 500 (SPX) from 2022 to 2025.  The weeklyContinue reading “Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak”

S&P 500 – Alternate Elliott Wave Count – 11/14/25

The 11/13/25 blog “U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025” illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) could be forming an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle.  The sharp move down during the open of the 11/14/25 SPX trading session presents an alternate wave count.  The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “S&P 500 – Alternate Elliott Wave Count – 11/14/25”

U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025

On 11/12/25 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) made a new all-time high unaccompanied by the other two main U.S. stock indices, S&P 500 (SPX), and the Nasdaq Composite.  Since January 2000 this momentum divergence has signaled important U.S. stock market peaks. However, several of these signals have occurred in 2025 – all have failed. Continue reading “U.S. Stock Market at a Crossroad – November 2025”