Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Potentially Very Bearish Elliott Wave Count – 05/23/25

A very sharp S&P 500 (SPX) decline could occur during the week of 05/27/25 to 05/30/25. The SPX 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View zooms in on the intraday Elliott wave count. It’s possible that the SPX move down from the 05/19/25 peak is an Elliott wave series of “one’s” and “two’s” down. Continue reading “Potentially Very Bearish Elliott Wave Count – 05/23/25”

S&P 500 – 200 – Day Simple Moving Average Update – 05/23/25

On 05/23/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) hit and closed the trading session just above its 200 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA).  What the SPX does during the week of 05/27/25 to 05/30/25 could determine its course into at least mid – July 2025. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what’s happened.Continue reading “S&P 500 – 200 – Day Simple Moving Average Update – 05/23/25”

U.S. Long -Term Treasury Yield Hit a High Point

On 05/22/25 the CBOE 30 – Year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) hit 5.15 the high of a multi – year bull move made on 10/23/23. The daily TYX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the most likely Ellott wave count. The 05/17/25 blog “Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25”Continue reading “U.S. Long -Term Treasury Yield Hit a High Point”

Daily Sell Signals for the S&P 500 – 05/21/25

Daily S&P 500 (SPX) Stochastic has a bearish line cross.   Daily RSI has crossed below its moving average line.  The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. If the SPX decisively moves below its 200 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and stays below the line, it could be very bearish. HowContinue reading “Daily Sell Signals for the S&P 500 – 05/21/25”

Bullish and Bearish S&P 500 Scenarios – 05/16/25

Elliott wave analysis reveals two courses the S&P 500 (SPX) could take in the coming weeks. On a bar chart the SPX rally after 04/07/25 has several Elliott wave interpretations.  Using line charts sometimes clarifies the Elliott picture.   In this case it reveals two possible scenarios. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustratesContinue reading “Bullish and Bearish S&P 500 Scenarios – 05/16/25”

Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25

There’s a high probability that the U.S. 30 – year Treasury Yield (TYX) has completed a multi- month Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. The 05/11/25 blog “The Treasury Triangle” illustrated that TYX was probably forming an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle since October 2023.  These structures are sideways corrective patterns which sub divide into fiveContinue reading “Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25”

Trendline Breakthrough – 05/12/25

On 05/12/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke above the trendline, connecting the 04/09/25 and 05/02/25 peaks.  The SPX also move above the 03/25/25 peak and the 200 – Simple Moving Average (SMA). The only significant factor that could be bearish is that the move up to new post 04/07/25 rally highs occurred on a FullContinue reading “Trendline Breakthrough – 05/12/25”

The Treasury Triangle

There is no predestination in Elliott Wave theory.   The mass mind like the individual mind can change direction, there are always alternate Elliott wave counts.  The CBOE 30 – Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) may have completed a fascinating alternate Elliott wave count. The 02/02/25 blog “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates?” noted.Continue reading “The Treasury Triangle”

Follow the Trendlines

Trendline analysis could identify the next significant S&P 500 (SPX) turn. The two – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Since 04/09/25 the SPX has been trading within a rising wedge which is typically bearish.  The upper trendline intersects with the 03/25/25 peak on 05/12/25.   Note that the two – hourContinue reading “Follow the Trendlines”