A Full Moon and momentum divergence could signal an important U.S. stock market top.
The daily chart courtesy of Trading View shows the relationship of the three main U.S. stock indices. S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI).
When only one of the three major U.S. stock indices reaches a new all-time high, it may signal a major or intermediate market peak. I call this phenomenon the “Rule of the Majority.” The two indices that do not reach new highs indicate the true trend. The signal is invalidated if two of the three indices reach new all-time highs.
On 09/22/26, only the IXIC reached a new all-time high, suggesting that a major peak may already be in place. However, there could be another rally on 09/28/26.
The daily chart of the technology stock – ETF (XLK) updates its action.
The 09/20/26 blog “U.S. Technology Stocks Surging to New Highs?” noted.
“From an Elliott wave perspective XLK action from 06/03/26 to 09/14/26 appears to be a completed Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. These structures are net sideways corrections to the main trend which in this case is up”.
Subsequently XLK has gone up and is probably in a developing Intermediate wave (5).
The 09/20/26 blog noted XLK 214.35 as a potential peak. The minimal level needed is only one tick above the presumed Intermediate wave (3) peak of 198.73. It appears XLK from the 09/14/26 bottom is forming an Elliott Impulse wave. If so, XLK could reach the Minor wave “5” target zone on 09/28/26.
Sometimes markets can turn on Full/New Moons plus or minus two trading days. Since May 2026 there have been several U.S. stock market turns on or near Full/New moons.
The most recent turn 08/28/26 was forecasted in the 08/27/28 blog “In the Lunar Zone – August 2026”
There’s a Full Moon on 09/26/26.
The ideal scenario for 09/28/26 would be for both IXIC and XLK to make new highs unconfirmed by SPX and DJI. If this occurs it could signal an important peak.
