On the surface the three main U.S. stock indices; S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are close to their all-time highs. By measurement of price these indices are in bull markets. If you look underneath the surface most U.S. stocks are in a bear market.
The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its action.
SPX reached its all-time high on 08/13/26, as of 09/25/26 it was only 1% below this high and could make a new all-time high in one – trading day. If price action matched the current level of the S&P 500 – A/D line, it would be trading near the level made on 05/19/26.
The daily S&P 500 – A/D line chart ($SPXADP) courtesy of StockCharts.com shows its movements since September 2025.
Please note the March 2026 – A/D decline resulted in about a 9% -SPX drop. Now examine the A/D decline since 08/14/26. The drop is larger than the March decline, yet SPX is as of 09/25/26 down only 1%!
Either SPX or the A/D line are giving a false signal.
If it’s SPX there could soon be a decline of at least 8%, possibly much more.
