U.S. Stocks are in a Bear Market – September 2026

Posted byMark RivestPosted inMomentum, Price

On the surface the three main U.S. stock indices; S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average are close to their all-time highs.  By measurement of price these indices are in bull markets.  If you look underneath the surface most U.S. stocks are in a bear market.  

The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its action.

SPX reached its all-time high on 08/13/26, as of 09/25/26 it was only 1% below this high and could make a new all-time high in one – trading day.   If price action matched the current level of the S&P 500 – A/D line, it would be trading near the level made on 05/19/26.

The daily S&P 500 – A/D line chart ($SPXADP) courtesy of StockCharts.com shows its movements since September 2025.

Please note the March 2026 – A/D decline resulted in about a 9% -SPX drop.  Now examine the A/D decline since 08/14/26.  The drop is larger than the March decline, yet SPX is as of 09/25/26 down only 1%!

Either SPX or the A/D line are giving a false signal.  

If it’s SPX there could soon be a decline of at least 8%, possibly much more.

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

4 thoughts on “U.S. Stocks are in a Bear Market – September 2026”

  1. Focusing on SPX ignores the real story. Nasdaq Composite is the leading the way to a recovery. As you pointed out in your 9/20 blog, the tech sector is the strongest right now. But it is not just leading the way in terms of price action, it is also leading the way in terms of breadth. This bullish development provides the best clue to the direction of equity markets.

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    1. Hi David

      Thanks for the comment. Your correct about the Nasdaq bullish breadth. Major stock market turns never have 100% evidence supporting a bullish or bearish case. The weight of evidence from all four stock market dimensions is currently are very brearish.

      The evidence illustrated in the most recent blog is just the tip of the momentum evidence. There are several U.S. stock sectors that are significantly off their all-time highs.

      Enidence from the sentiment dimension has been bearish for several months.

      The time frame for a U.S. stock market downturn is very narrow. It may have allready started as of today 09/28/26. If not, the bulls need to push up any two of the main U.S. stock indices to new all-time highs this week.

      Mark

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  2. Another 3.489% down on the DJIA from 10/16/26 will make the secondary trend in us stocks turn bearish, per the 100+ year old Dow theory. It may not mean that the bear market has started but it means caution is warranted right now now. Both the primary & secondary trends in stocks were confirmed as bullish on 12/4/24 @ again on 5/25/26. The secular bear market in yields on US Treasuries ran from 1981 to 2020 & since then has been in a bull market, which most investors may not have noticed; as this is a once in an investing lifetime event. Extremely bad breadth in the stock market while the indices are near an all time high just means that rotation of money is happening. If the bond vigilantes all over the world decide to take a stroll on Wall Street, the Fed cannot do anything & yields can go higher from here. With 20% or so being paid out in interest, the fiscal indiscipline continues forward. The after tax returns on (risk free to capital if held to maturities) on US Treasuries can compete with the after tax returns on long term for stock which is at about 9% (from 1983 to now) versus 8% (from 27 May 1896 to now). The best market in USA stocks can start pretty much anytime in my analysis. Preservation of capital is more important now than ever, over future returns on stocks in a portfolio. This is what I think as a humble individual investor from 1984 managing my own money using Dow theory & technical analysis, using the “99% stocks or 200% cash” philosophy. Means stay in cash during bear markets & get fully invested in a bull market in stocks.

    But after all these years, my goal is now is to lock in the yields on US Treasuries by being a “100% in US Treasuries investor” with some buying as it tops & rest of the buying after a confirmed top on the charts – using technical analysis. But no shorting of the stock market is called for.

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