Yields on long and short – term U.S. Treasury Debt have been rising. If the trend continues it could have an adverse effect on the U.S. economy and stocks.
The monthly – 30 – year Treasury Yield chart (TYX) courtesy of Trading View shows the very long – term view.
Currently monthly RSI has a bearish divergence vs. the October 2023 peak. If this divergence is broken TYX prices could reach 6.00 to 6.50 sometime in October 2026.
A Fibonacci .382 retracement of the 1981 to 2020 bear market is near 6.35. There’s also the significant peak at 6.54 made in January 2000.
The weekly 13 – week Treasury Bill yield chart (IRX) illustrates the long -term picture since 2023.
Currently weekly RSI has a bearish divergence vs. the July 2026 peak. If this divergence is broken IRX prices could reach 41.50 to 43.00 sometime in October 2026.
A Fibonacci .382 retracement of the 2023 to 2026 decline is at 42.15 in the middle of the price cluster zone.
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