A multi-month rally in U.S. interest rates may have begun.
The 05/16/26 blog “Long – Term Yields Near Major Double Top” noted that U.S. Treasury 30- year bond yields (TYX) were close to moving above a double top at 5.15 made in October 2023 and May 2025. On 05/19/26 TYX broke above 5.15, reaching 5.20. The next day TYX began a multi-week decline back to 4.82.
On 07/30/26 TYX moved above 5.20 and on 07/31/26 reached 5.28, this could be just the start of a move up to at least 6.00.
The monthly TYX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long-term picture.
In early March TYX completed an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle that began in October 2023. After completion of these structures there’s usually sharp move in the direction of the main trend which in this case is up.
The target zone 6.00 to 6.50 is based on two factors. First is the topping area made from late 1999 to early 2000. Note that the October 2023 rally stopped around the peak made in mid-2007. The second factor is based on the last three months prior to the October 2023 peak. From August 2023 to October 2023 TYX climbed about 27%. Projecting a gain of 27% from the low made in July 2026 targets about 6.30%. This price level could be reached by September or October 2026.
Please note that monthly RSI is currently at 64.15, the overbought zone begins at 70.00. Monthly RSI supports the theory for a TYX rise into September/October 2026.
The next monthly chart shows the U.S. Treasury 10 – year note yields (TNX).
TNX has lagged TYX and has yet to move above its October 2023 peak at 5.00.
Yields/rates rise as bonds/notes decline. If TNX moves above 5.00 it could trigger additional selling of bonds/notes. Watch for a move above TNX 5.00.
If longer-term interest rates climb, they could have an adverse effect on the U.S. economy, particularly the housing and auto markets. It could also contribute to a decline in the U.S. stock market.
Four Dimension Trading 