Sometimes markets can make turns at New or Full Moons plus or minus two trading days. From May to July 2026 four of the five lunar cycles have signaled S&P 500 (SPX) turns.
The SPX – 4 – hour bar chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the phenomenon.
The 05/18/26- New Moon was one trading day before the 05/19/26 small correction bottom.
The 06/01/26 Full Moon was one trading day before the SPX all-time high on 06/02/26.
The 06/15/26 New Moon was the same day as the sharp rally peak labeled Minute wave [i].
The 07/14/26 New Moon was one trading day before the presumed Ending Diagonal Triangle peak made on 07/15/26.
Only the 06/30/26 Full Moon failed to signal an SPX turn.
If the next Lunar cycle is effective the SPX could make a bottom on or near the 07/29/26 Full Moon.
In addition to the Lunar cycles the SPX Elliott wave structure has two potentially bearish messages.
Please note the SPX all-time high on 06/02/26 is labeled Minor wave “3”, while the 07/15/26 lower peak is labeled Minor wave “5”. About 85% of the time fifth waves of a motive pattern exceed the termination point of the third wave. When the failure of a fifth wave exceeding the third wave occurs it’s called a Truncated fifth wave. When this phenomenon happens; it signals exhaustion of the main trend – in this case up. The subsequent turns are faster and larger than when the fifth wave exceeds the peak of the third wave.
The SPX moves up from the 06/09/26 bottom appears to be an Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle (EDT). This pattern only appears in the fifth wave position of motive patterns. EDTs are termination waves of a larger trend.
Ending Diagonal Triangles by themselves are a signal of trend exhaustion. An EDT that’s also a Truncated fifth wave is an extremely bearish signal.
It’s possible the SPX could collapse to the 6,400 area on or near the 07/29/26 New Moon.
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