Suspicious Decline -04/12/23

Today 04/12/23 was the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.  It was also the prime day for a Fibonacci time cycle turn based on coordinates from the S&P 500 (SPX) 2022 decline.

At 8:30 AM – EDT the U.S. CPI report was released triggering a strong rally in the S&P 500 futures.   At 9:30 AM – EDT the SPX session opened and within a few minutes was above the SPX 04/04/23 high.  This was the minimum needed to confirm that Minor wave “E” of an Elliott wave – Inverse Horizontal Triangle was complete.  The SPX rally peaked at 6:33 AM – EDT, then for the next 100 – minutes  declined sharply. 

The action after the opening of the SPX session is what would be expected at the beginning of a significant decline. What happened after 8:13 AM -EDT is not what would be expected for the start of a multi-day or multi-week drop.     

The 15 -minute – SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened.

Normally on the first day of a significant decline; intraday retracements are typically shallow, usually not more than 38%.  The rally after the 8:13 AM bottom retraced 82% of the opening drop.  Subsequently there was another drop that made a new intraday low.  However, both declines are  nearly equal which is a typical  Fibonacci  ratio relationship of Elliott wave – Zigzag corrections.

The 15 – Minute- Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chart shows an even stronger intraday retracement.

While the SPX made its intraday high just after the open of the session, the DJI outperformed the SPX and made a high at 7:17 AM.  The DJI then dropped sharply, and the subsequent rally went marginally above the 7:17 AM top.  The DJI structure from  7:17 AM to the low of the day looks like an Elliott wave – Expanding Flat correction.

Fibonacci time cycles have leeway.  There’s a ten – month span for the time cycle targeting a turn this week – the leeway could be a few trading days.

If U.S. stocks did not peak on 04/12/23 it’s possible a top could be made in the next two trading days.


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Advantage,, and Finance Magnates.

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