Nasdaq Composite – MACD Indicator

The 06/16/22 and 06/23/22 blogs examined the possibility that US stocks could make a new decline bottom, within the 06/28/22 to 06/30/22 time  zone.

The US stock market rally on 06/24/22 has reduced  the chances of a bottom being made in the last week of June 2022.

The daily Nasdaq Composite chart (IXIC) courtesy of Trading View  illustrates the action.

On 06/24/22 the IXIC – MACD indicator had a  bullish lines crossover, the prior five crossovers since  the IXIC all-time high have signaled rallies  of at least a few trading days.  The longest post crossover signal was on 03/16/22 – a nine trading day rally.

The most likely Elliott wave count for IXIC  since its  November 2021 peak is  a developing five – wave impulse pattern.  The rally from the 06/16/22 bottom is  probably wave “4”.  Fourth wave retracements  in bullish or bearish  impulse  patterns are usually shallow. The reason is  because after the termination of the third wave, the crowd recognizes the direction of the main  trend – which in this case us down. 

Normally, fourth waves  retrace between .236 to .382 of the prior third wave.  Retracements beyond .50  are  rare.  If the IXIC   moves above 13,213.36 the presumed wave “4” would be in doubt.

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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