Prelude to a Short- Term Bottom?

The 06/16/22 blog “Forecast for a Short-Term Bottom” noted that a S&P 500  (SPX) daily MACD bearish crossover could be forecasting a short-term bottom sometime in the last week of June 2022.

Subsequently US stocks have rallied, this  move  could be the prelude for another decline.

The 05/28/22 blog “Examination of Two Major Bear Markets” illustrated  that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)  decline from the January 2022 top appears  to be  taking the form of an Elliott wave – Double Zigzag.  It’s possible the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) drop from its  all-time high  is  an  Elliott five- wave Impulse pattern.

The daily IXIC chart courtesy of Trading View  illustrates  the action.

The IXIC  recent rally could be Minor wave “4” of a developing five wave impulse down from its 2021 all-time high.  If the rally soon terminates the next decline could make a new bear market low.

The daily IXIC chart from 2019 to present illustrates where a short-term bottom could form.

The IXIC  could be headed toward a .618 retracement  of the IXIC bull market from March 2020 to November 2021.  The exact level is 10,256.53  near chart support made on 07/24/20 at 10,217.23.

The time  zone for a possible bottom is  06/28/22 to 06/30/22. There’s a  New Moon on 06/28/22.  The end of the second quarter of 2022 stock trading is 06/30/22.

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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