Almost all markets have seasonal tendencies. Knowing which months are seasonally bullish or bearish is essential to trading extended price movements. Counter seasonal trends are also important. When a market moves against its seasonal pattern it could be heralding a major trend change. November 2025 could be signaling a major trend change for U.S. stocks.Continue reading “November – Most Important Month for the S&P 500”
Category Archives: Time
Infinite Selling
The decline of U.S. stocks on 11/20/25 was so brutal that at times it looked like it could last forever. For the main trading session, it was forever, as the main U.S. stock indices closed the day at or just above their lows. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View shows whatContinue reading “Infinite Selling”
Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak
Powerful bull markets for both Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and U.S. stocks began on 04/07/25. The BTCUSD peak on 10/06/25 could be a sign of an approaching top for U.S. stocks. The 09/14/25 blog “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025” examined the relationship between BTCUSD and the S&P 500 (SPX) from 2022 to 2025. The weeklyContinue reading “Using Bitcoin to Time a U.S. Stock Market Peak”
The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Two
The 10/25/25 blog “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector” noted that the PHLX Semiconductor index (SOX) had been a factor in the surge up of U.S. stocks. Recent action implies this leading sector is still bullish. The weekly SOX chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s happened. The 10/25/25 blog noted. “Weekly RSI continues toContinue reading “The Leading U.S. Stock Sector – Part – Two”
Sixteen – Year Analysis of the S&P 500
The 10/18/25 blog “Fifty – Year Analysis of the S&P 500” examined the two S&P 500 (SPX) secular bull markets that spanned fifty years. Fibonacci price and time ratios between the two bull markets imply a major peak that could be made in 2025. A look at the at the SPX rise since 2009 revealsContinue reading “Sixteen – Year Analysis of the S&P 500”
Fifty – Year Analysis of the S&P 500
Very long-term Fibonacci price and time ratios imply S&P 500 (SPX) could make a significant peak sometime in 2025. Because of the fractal nature of markets Fibonacci price and time analysis can be made on any time scale, from minutes to centuries. The yearly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View examines two bull markets thatContinue reading “Fifty – Year Analysis of the S&P 500”
Lunar Cycles and Momentum – October 2025
The 10/06/25 blog “Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025” examined the Lunar cycle phenomenon of markets turning on Full or New Moons plus or minus two trading days. This cycle was effective on 10/11/07 – a New Moon and the peak of a five – year S&P 500 (SPX) bull market. The 10/06/25Continue reading “Lunar Cycles and Momentum – October 2025”
Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025
Seasonal patterns for U.S. stocks are bearish from mid – August to October and bullish from November to April. U.S. stocks have rallied through September which is statistically the most bearish month. With the bearish season nearly complete, does this mean several more months of rallying? It’s possible however the S&P 500 (SPX) has notContinue reading “Lunar and Seasonal Time Cycles – October 2025”
Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025
Since early 2022 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have roughly traded together. Perhaps the BTCUSD peak in August 2025 is heralding a bear market for both indices. The weekly BTCUSD and SPX chart illustrates their relationship since late 2021. On 11/10/21 BTCUSD made a significant peak. On 01/04/22 SPX made an important peakContinue reading “Bitcoin/S&P 500 – Journey 2022 to 2025”
S&P 500 at 6,666?
In March 2009 the S&P 500 (SPX) made a major bottom at 666. Perhaps there could be a major peak at 6,666? The 08/16/25 blog “Comparison of the S&P 500 in 1987 vs. 2025” illustrated that there could be a Fibonacci price relationship between the late stage of the SPX 1987 bull market with what’sContinue reading “S&P 500 at 6,666?”
