Category Archives: Sentiment

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – February 2024

Current U.S. stock market sentiment implies a major top could be forming. There are several ways to measure market sentiment.  Examining trader/investor actions such as buying Put or Call options.  Another way is by polling trader/investor opinions about a market. The daily CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) chart and S&P 500 chart  courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – February 2024”

Psychological Signposts – December 2023

On rare occasions markets have events that could be called “Psychological Signposts”.  These events indicate extreme bullish/bearish sentiment  near the end of significant market movements. A classic example of a Psychological Signpost happened in  Gold during 1999.  During that year some mutual funds focusing on Gold Mining companies closed due to lack of investor demand. Continue reading “Psychological Signposts – December 2023”

   VIX Makes a New Low – 12/08/23.

On 12/08/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) moved above it’s 12/01/23 high and the top made on 07/27/23.  Corresponding with the new SPX – 2023 high was a new low in the S&P 500 – Volatility Index (VIX).  The new VIX low  implies U.S. stocks could rally into early January 2024.      The daily SPX chartContinue reading ”   VIX Makes a New Low – 12/08/23.”

VIX Makes a New 2023 Low – 11/24/23.

The shorten U.S. stock market session after the  Thanksgiving day holiday is usually dull and non-eventful.  This year something different happened, the S&P Volatility Index (VIX) made a new 2023 low setting up the possibility for a VIX topping signal.  The VIX topping signal was noted in the 07/22/23 blog “Momentum and Sentiment Evidence –Continue reading “VIX Makes a New 2023 Low – 11/24/23.”

Sentiment and Momentum Readings for U.S. Stocks – October 2023

Stock market bottoms prior to at least multi- month rallies occur in two ways.  After a sudden and sharp decline, such as the 2020 crash.  Or after a multi month drop like the January to October 2022 bear phase.  The sentiment and momentum readings from U.S. Stocks in late October 2023  provide insight to theContinue reading “Sentiment and Momentum Readings for U.S. Stocks – October 2023”

Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks? – Part Two

Additional Evidence that the U.S. stock market could be forming an intermediate bottom. Stock market turns can occur when a stock sector or sectors fail to confirm a new high or low of a market move.  A broad example of this phenomenon is what I call a “Rule of the majority” signal.  This signal happensContinue reading “Intermediate Bottom for U.S. Stocks? – Part Two”

Fitch Downgrade

Fitch Rating on 08/01/23  downgraded its U.S. debt rating from “AAA” to “+AA” which  reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years.  The downgrade triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks.  The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. The 08/02/23 decline broke below the 07/27/23 “Key Reversal” bottomContinue reading “Fitch Downgrade”

Momentum and Sentiment Evidence – 07/21/23

Strong evidence from the dimensions of momentum and sentiment indicate an important U.S. stock market top may have been made on 07/20/23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on 07/20/23 was the only one of the three main U.S. stock indices to make a new post October 2022 rally high. The daily DJI, S&P 500Continue reading “Momentum and Sentiment Evidence – 07/21/23”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 07/19/23

As the S&P 500  makes new post October 2022 rally highs the VIX remains above its most recent bottom made on 06/22/23. The daily VIX chart courtesy of Trading View updates its action. The VIX failing to make a new low with the SPX making new rally highs is a potential topping signal for U.S.Continue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 07/19/23”