Today 7/12/23 two of the three main U.S. stock indices moved to new post October 2022 rally highs. The new highs came beyond the leeway time zone for the expected Spiral Calendar top due late June 2023 – illustrated in the 06/22/23 blog. Today’s highs also invalidated Fibonacci price and time relationships shown in theContinue reading “Two U.S. Stock Indicators to Watch”
Category Archives: Momentum
Examination of Long and Short – Term Interest Rates – 07/07/23
The 04/30/23 blog “Examination of Long and Short – Term Interest Rates – 04/28/23” noted the 30 – Year Treasury Yields (TYX) from its peak in October 2022 appeared to be forming an Elliott Wave – Horizontal Triangle. The daily TYX chart courtesy of Trading View updates its action. On 07/07/23 TYX exceeded the peakContinue reading “Examination of Long and Short – Term Interest Rates – 07/07/23”
Bearish Signals From the German Stock Index
The German Stock Index (DEU40) appears to be in the early phase of a significant bear move. The daily DEU40 chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. In mid – June 2023 the DEU40 made a new all-time high. The pattern up from September 2022 bottom counts as an Elliott – five wave Impulse. Continue reading “Bearish Signals From the German Stock Index”
At the Summit?
On 06/30/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new post October 2022 rally high. Time cycles indicate a potential top late June to early July 2023. U.S. stocks could be on the verge of an important summit. The 06/27/23 blog “Start of the Final Rally?” noted “The end of the second quarter is 06/30/23, there’sContinue reading “At the Summit?”
Shallow Correction Complete?
On 06/21/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) declined .52% while the Advance/Decline was almost flat. Today 06/22/23 the SPX was up .37% while the NYSE Advanced/Decline line was 2.3 to 1 in favor of declining stocks. The hourly chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the short-term action. The SPX failed to reach the target support zoneContinue reading “Shallow Correction Complete?”
Shallow Correction – 06/21/23
From 05/25/23 to 06/16/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) was in a strong and steady rally. Corrections of these rallies are usually short and shallow. The crowd recognizes the trend and are eager to buy a decline. Those holding long are reluctant to sell. The drop from the 06/16/23 peak could be shallow. The hourly SPXContinue reading “Shallow Correction – 06/21/23”
S&P 500 Topping Zones
The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index ($BPSPX) is signaling a potential S&P 500 (SPX) topping zone. The Bullish Percent Index is a breadth indicator that shows the percentage of stocks on Point & Figure buy signals. This indicator is good at identifying developing bearish stock market momentum. There are usually several bearish divergences before anContinue reading “S&P 500 Topping Zones”
Technology Stock Mania
The rally in U.S. stocks since the March 2023 bottom has been very selective. While some sectors are lagging, the Technology sector has led the way up. This sector as measured by the SPDR Select Sector Fund – Technology (XLK) has reached the area of its all-time high made in December 2021. A significant doubleContinue reading “Technology Stock Mania”
Bitcoin and Nasdaq Composite Connection
Bitcoin in U.S. dollars (BTCUSD) has a close relationship of trending with the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC). Since April 2023 the two markets have separated. Its possible the current BTCUSD bear trend is a warning sign for a significant IXIC decline. The weekly BTCUSD and IXIC chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their relationship since NovemberContinue reading “Bitcoin and Nasdaq Composite Connection”
Bull Market Rally vs. Bear Market Rally
In bull market rallies stock indices trend together. Making new highs at about the same time and declining together. Moves up during large bear markets tend to be more erratic. A comparison of the post October 2022 U.S. stock market rally with a prior bullish phase reveals some interesting insights. The U.S. stock rally thatContinue reading “Bull Market Rally vs. Bear Market Rally”
Four Dimension Trading 