Mark Rivest

U.S Stock Market Momentum Update – 08/21/25

Internal momentum for the U.S. stock market continues to have bearish signals. The six – month NYSE 52 – week high chart courtesy of Barchart.com illustrates a near – term bearish divergence. On 08/13/25 the NYSE new highs moved marginally above the reading made on 07/03/25. However, on 08/19/25 when the Dow Jones Industrial AverageContinue reading “U.S Stock Market Momentum Update – 08/21/25”

Possible Major U.S. Stock Market Peak – 08/19/25

The 08/17/25 blog “Lunar Time Cycle in 1987 and 2025” noted a major U.S. stock peak could come in the time zone of 08/21/25 to 08/26/25. This is still possible; however, there’s also a larger seasonal pattern of a potential major peak any day in August. Today 08/19/25 could be that day. Since March ofContinue reading “Possible Major U.S. Stock Market Peak – 08/19/25”

Lunar Time Cycle in 1987 and 2025

The prior blog examined the seasonal similarities between the S&P 500 (SPX) in 1987 and 2025. Now a look at lunar time cycles. The first daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened in 1987. The final phase of a five-year SPX secular bull market was from April to August 1987. This movementContinue reading “Lunar Time Cycle in 1987 and 2025”

Comparison of the S&P 500 in 1987 vs. 2025

There are two seasonal bearish patterns for U.S. stocks. April through May and August through October. In 2025 the S&P 500 (SPX) is roughly following the seasonal pattern it took in 1987. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates what happened in 1987 and 2025. The SPX peaked in April 1987 then hadContinue reading “Comparison of the S&P 500 in 1987 vs. 2025”

S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 08/14/25

The 08/02/25 blog “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 08/01/25” illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed Minor wave “3” of the post 04/07/25 rally at the 07/31/25 peak. Subsequent price action strongly supports that wave count. The two – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the wave count sinceContinue reading “S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Update – 08/14/25”

Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25

On 08/12/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) reached new all-time highs. This invalidates the bearish divergence made on 08/08/25 when IXIC made a new high unconfirmed by the SPX. Additionally, the VIX made a new post 04/07/25 low. This invalidates the higher VIX bottom made on 08/08/25. The daily SPX, IXIC, andContinue reading “Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25”

Time Cycles – August 2025

Three different time cycles indicate the U.S. stock market could be in a topping zone. There are various methods to measure market or stock time cycles. Usually there’s broad leeway when using time cycles, precision is the exception not the rule. Most markets have seasonal trends which can vary in regularity. For example, agricultural marketsContinue reading “Time Cycles – August 2025”

Sentiment Update – 08/08/25

The 08/03/25 blog “Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25” noted that when the S&P 500 (SPX) is making a significant peak the VIX forms a higher low. The daily SPX and VIX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. SPX all-time high on 07/31/25 came with a marginally higher VIX bottom indicating a potentialContinue reading “Sentiment Update – 08/08/25”

The Ultimate Bearish Divergence?

There are several ways a stock index could have bearish momentum signals. Momentum oscillators such as Stochastic or RSI can be used to identify a coming down trend Components of a stock index can also be used to discover potential trend changes. Advance/decline lines of stocks within the index as well as stocks makingContinue reading “The Ultimate Bearish Divergence?”

Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25

NYSE – 52 – week highs and the VIX give bearish signals for the U.S. stock market. The VIX is very effective identifying S&P 500 (SPX) bottoms. VIX spikes up at or near the completion of an SPX decline. The situation is different when the SPX is reaching an important peak. VIX signals a potentialContinue reading “Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25”