Mark Rivest

S&P 500 Breaks Another Support Level

Growing evidence indicates U.S stocks could be in a multi-week decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the short-term view. Early in the 08/04/23 SPX session stocks rallied on bullish economic news. In a bullish trend the rally would likely continue until the end of the session orContinue reading ” S&P 500 Breaks Another Support Level”

Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy

The recent Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt may have surprised some people. For those following S&P 500 – stock sectors, it probably came as confirmation that the U.S economy could be weakening. The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View compares it to three stock sectors. The 07/16/23 blog “S&P 500 –Continue reading “Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy”

Fitch Downgrade

Fitch Rating on 08/01/23 downgraded its U.S. debt rating from “AAA” to “+AA” which reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years. The downgrade triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. The 08/02/23 decline broke below the 07/27/23 “Key Reversal” bottomContinue reading “Fitch Downgrade”

Rising Long-Term Interest Rates – Part Two

The 07/27/23 blog “Rising Long-Term Interest Rates – 07/27/23” illustrated a bullish Elliott wave count forecasting a move in U.S 30-year Treasury yields (TYX) above the October 2022 peak. Point & Figure chart analysis identifies potential resistance points on the upside path. Markets are battlefields between bullish and bearish forces. Point & Figure charts provideContinue reading “Rising Long-Term Interest Rates – Part Two”

U.S. Stock Market – Internal Momentum – 07/28/23

Stock market momentum can be measured two ways, externally or internally. Momentum oscillators such as RSI and Stochastic are external indicators. Internal momentum examines what’s happening under the surface of price – Advance/Decline lines and new highs/lows. This blogs looks at two internal indicators for the U.S. stock market. 52 – week highs and theContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market – Internal Momentum – 07/28/23”

Rising Long – Term Interest Rates – 07/27/23

The 07/26/23 blog “Money Goes Where it is Treated Best” noted that the FOMC raising short-term interest rates could cause stock fund managers to sell stocks in favor of a nearly risk-free return. A rise in long-term interest rates/yields could be averse to stocks. The 07/08/23 blog “Examination of Long and Short-Term Interest Rates” illustratedContinue reading “Rising Long – Term Interest Rates – 07/27/23”

Money Goes Where it is Treated Best

Today 07/26/23 the U.S. FOMC raised short-term interest rates by 25 basis points from 5.25% to 5.50%. This increases the temptation of stock fund managers to sell a portion of their stock holdings and get a nearly risk-free return. It’s possible this behavior has been occurring for several weeks which may explain why several S&PContinue reading “Money Goes Where it is Treated Best”

Tesla Inc. Massive Momentum Divergences

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) could be in the beginning of deep and sharp decline. Prior to TSLA’s all-time high in November 2021 it was a leading stock in the bull market that began in March 2020. More recently since early 2023 TSLA has resumed its market leadership role. If TSLA begins a large decline there’s aContinue reading “Tesla Inc. Massive Momentum Divergences”

Momentum and Sentiment Evidence – 07/21/23

Strong evidence from the dimensions of momentum and sentiment indicate an important U.S. stock market top may have been made on 07/20/23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on 07/20/23 was the only one of the three main U.S. stock indices to make a new post October 2022 rally high. The daily DJI, S&P 500Continue reading “Momentum and Sentiment Evidence – 07/21/23”

The July 20th Topping Phenomenon

Occasionally significant S&P 500 (SPX) tops have occurred in July. During the past 25 – years there have been five instances of SPX important July peaks. These prior July tops provide fascinating clues to a potential SPX 2023 high. First a review of the potential time cycle turn that was due late June to earlyContinue reading “The July 20th Topping Phenomenon”