Author Archives: Mark Rivest

U.S. Stock Market Momentum Update – 01/19/24

On 01/19/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) surged up 1.23% and made a new all-time high.  On the surface it appears this could be in the start part of another manic rally.  An examination of U.S. stock market momentum suggests something else. The daily S&P 500 – Advanced/Decline line ($SPXADP) chart courtesy of StockCharts.com updates itsContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Momentum Update – 01/19/24”

S&P 500 – Short – Term Downside Target – 01/17/24

The 01/14//24 blog “S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 01/12/24” illustrated that an Elliott Wave – Expanding Flat correction was probably developing and noted. “There’s a good chance the third wave – Minor wave “C” began at the SPX high on 01/12/24”.  The S&P 500  (SPX) high on 01/12/24 has held, increasing theContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short – Term Downside Target – 01/17/24”

S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 01/12/24

There are always alternate Elliott wave counts.  To determine the most likely path requires analysis of market momentum and sentiment.   Recent momentum readings continue to suggest a short-term decline to at least the S&P 500 (SPX) 4,550 area. Recent blogs on this website have illustrated the bearish momentum messages from the S&P 500 – BullishContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short-Term Elliott Wave Count – 01/12/24”

Bitcoin Drops Fast From Important Resistance

On 01/11/24 – Bitcoin in U.S. dollars (BTCUSD) reached important Fibonacci resistance and then rapidly declined.  Several factors indicate this could just be the start of at least a multi-month bear phase.  The weekly BTCUSD chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the big picture. The BTCUSD all-time high was in November 2021 it then fellContinue reading “Bitcoin Drops Fast From Important Resistance”

Manic Bounce – Part Two – 01/11/24

Today, 01/11/24 the release of the December U.S. – CPI data triggered  the S&P 500 (SPX) to move marginally above its 12/28/23 high. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Bearish momentum continues.  Daily – CCI still has a significant bearish divergence.  RSI now has a double bearish divergence vs. itsContinue reading “Manic Bounce – Part Two – 01/11/24”

Manic Bounce – 01/10/24

The 01/06/24 blog “Intraday Elliott Wave Count for the S&P 500 500 – 01/04/24” illustrated S&P 500 (SPX) bullish momentum divergences that implied a bounce and noted. “If on 01/08/24 there’s no move below the 01/05/24 low, the bounce is probably developing”.  On 01/08/24 the SPX opened above the 01/05/24 low.  The subsequent SPX bounceContinue reading “Manic Bounce – 01/10/24”

U.S. Treasury Yield and S&P 500 – Relationship

For several months there’s been an inverse relationship between U.S. 30- year Treasury yields (TYX) and the S&P 500 (SPX).  The relationship is in effect as of early 2024.  Most in the investment community are probably focused on the FOMC interest rate decisions in regard to the direction of U.S. stocks.  In 2024 it couldContinue reading “U.S. Treasury Yield and S&P 500 – Relationship”

Intraday Elliott Wave Count for the S&P 500 – 01/05/24

The prior blog noted the S&P 500 (SPX) could find support near the 4,550 area.  The intraday SPX – Elliott intraday  wave count and momentum indicators suggest a brief bounce could develop. The SPX – 15 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View zooms in on the Elliott wave count from the 12/28/23 high.  NoteContinue reading “Intraday Elliott Wave Count for the S&P 500 – 01/05/24”

First Support for the S&P 500

“Volume Profile” and Fibonacci retracements estimates  the first S&P 500 (SPX) support zone. “Volume Profile” analysis has volume on a vertical scale and matches the volume with price action.  The largest volume cluster is called “Point of Control” (POC) which could be support/resistance for price.  The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates theContinue reading “First Support for the S&P 500”