Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Resistance Breakthrough – 05/10/24

On 05/09/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) marginally broke through “Volume Profile” resistance in the low 5,200 area.  On 05/10/24 there was a decisive move above resistance.   Unless the SPX can break below 5,200 it could soon at least return to the 03/28/24 all-time high. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com  updates the external momentum.Continue reading “Resistance Breakthrough – 05/10/24”

 Fibonacci Resistance Break

The prior two blogs noted both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Russell 2000 (RUT) may have found resistance just below a Fibonacci .618 retrace of their respective April declines.  Subsequently both indices have moved above the resistance zones.   The door is open for both indices to make new 2024 highs. The daily RUT chart courtesyContinue reading ” Fibonacci Resistance Break”

S&P 500 – Update – 05/03/24

The 04/21/24 blog ”Potential S&P 500 Bottom – Early May 2024” noted a Fibonacci time cycle turn on 05/03/24.  It was presumed that the S&P 500 (SPX) which began to decline in early April would continue dropping into early May.   Subsequently the 04/27/24 blog noted that the size of the SPX rally since 04/19/24 madeContinue reading “S&P 500 – Update – 05/03/24”

  Russell 2000 – Update – 05/03/24

May, 6 2024 could be an important day for the Russell 2000 (RUT)  and the U.S. stock market.  A strong move up could open the door for the RUT and other U.S. stock indices to make new 2024 highs.  A significant move down implies a resumption of the decline that began in late March 2024. Continue reading ”  Russell 2000 – Update – 05/03/24″

U.S Stock Market Momentum Remains Bearish

U.S. stocks had a wild ride on 05/01/24  – U.S. FOMC interest rate announcement.  By the end of the 05/01/24 session the  huge rally after the FOMC press conference had been completely retraced.  Daily and hourly momentum remains  bearish, implying the next wave of  post March 2024 bear move may have begun. The daily S&PContinue reading “U.S Stock Market Momentum Remains Bearish”

Russell 2000 Relative Weakness to the S&P 500

During stock bull markets indices usually trend together.  Divergences of indices within a bull trend could be the prelude to a significant decline.    The monthly Russell 2000 (RUT) and S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View shows their relationship during the secular bull market 2009 to 2021. For most of the time bothContinue reading “Russell 2000 Relative Weakness to the S&P 500”

Revised S&P 500 – Fibonacci Time Cycle

The 04/21/24 blog “Potential S&P 500 Bottom – Early May 2024”  illustrated the S&P 500 could make an important bottom on 05/03/24.   The size of the S&P 500 (SPX) rally since 04/19/24 makes that forecasted bottom date a low probability.   If the SPX resumes its decline 05/17/24 could mark a significant bottom. The daily SPXContinue reading “Revised S&P 500 – Fibonacci Time Cycle”

Watch the U.S. Treasury 5 – Year Yield

For several months the focus has been on when the U.S – FOMC will cut short -term interest rates.   In the meantime, rates/yields have been rising on long term – 5-to-30-year U.S. Treasury securities.  The monthly 5 – year Treasury yield (FVX) chart courtesy of Trading View  shows what’s been happening. After rising for moreContinue reading “Watch the U.S. Treasury 5 – Year Yield”

Russell 2000 – Clear Elliott Wave Pattern

The Russell 2000 (RUT) Elliott wave count from 03/28/24 to 04/24/24 implies more downside action. The one – hour RUT chart courtesy of Trading View shows what’s been happening. The RUT decline from 03/28/24 to 04/19/24 was an extended Elliott Impulse wave.  The subsequent rally was  a three – wave  correction topping almost exactly atContinue reading “Russell 2000 – Clear Elliott Wave Pattern”