Mark Rivest

Rising Tide for Long – Term U.S. Interest Rates

Yields for the 30 – Year U.S. Treasury Bond (TYX) have moved above important chart resistance and could be poised to move higher. The 09/25/24 blog “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24” illustrated that the next TYX resistance point was the 09/03/24 peak at 4.206. Subsequently TYX has moved above that point and has reachedContinue reading “Rising Tide for Long – Term U.S. Interest Rates”

Analogy between the S&P 500 in 2007 and 2024

Sometimes markets can form similar patterns to prior bull or bear movements. What’s happening to the S&P 500 (SPX) since July 2024 could be matching the action in 2007. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View compares what’s happening in 2024 to 2007. On 07/16/07 the SPX made an intermediate top then declined intoContinue reading “Analogy between the S&P 500 in 2007 and 2024”

Important Double Bottom – 10/02/24

The S&P 500 (SPX) has formed a double bottom which could be the most important near – term area on the chart. The 30 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the intraday action. Today 10/02/24 the SPX low of the day was 5,674.00 almost a bulls eye hit of the bottom madeContinue reading “Important Double Bottom – 10/02/24”

Crude Oil Trending Down – 09/27/24

Crude Oil is seasonally bearish into December, the current decline could continue for several weeks. The weekly Crude Oil – continuous next contract chart (CL2!) courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long – term view. Crude Oil could be drawn down to a Fibonacci .618 retracement of the April 2020 to March 2022 bull market.Continue reading “Crude Oil Trending Down – 09/27/24”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 09/27/24

Sentiment readings for U.S. stocks late September 2024 are shockingly bearish. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) sometimes called the fear index is very effective in discovering S&P 500 (SPX) bottoms. Sharp spikes up in the VIX usually correspond to significant SPX bottoms. You may think that VIX lows correspond to SPX peaks. This is notContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 09/27/24”

Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24

A characteristic of the major U.S. stock market peaks in 2000, 2007, 2022 was that at the final top only one of the three main U.S. stock was making a new high. On 09/26/24 the S&P 500 (SPX) a made a new all-time high unconfirmed by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite. DuringContinue reading “Solo High for S&P 500 – 09/26/24”

Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24

Trendline and momentum indicators imply long-term rates are in a bull market. The daily CBOE 30- year Treasury Yield (TYX) courtesy of Trading View updates the action. TYX has broken above the declining trendline connecting the 08/08/24 to 09/03/24 peaks. Daily RSI is well below the overbought level which begins at 70.00. MACD lines areContinue reading “Rising U.S. Interest Rates – 09/25/24”

Long-Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 09/20/24

The S&P 500 (SPX) may have completed an extended Elliott five wave pattern from the October 2022 bottom. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The move up from October 2022 to January 2023 is a series of one’s and two’s which is the basing pattern for a long and powerfulContinue reading “Long-Term S&P 500 – Elliott Wave Count – 09/20/24”

The Case for Rising U.S. Interest Rates

After almost a year of anticipation the U.S. FOMC lowered short-term interest rates by a half of a percent. Happy days are here again! Are they? From just before the announcement longer – term U.S. interest rates have been rising. If the trend continues it could be detrimental to the U.S. economy. The weekly chartContinue reading “The Case for Rising U.S. Interest Rates”

Buy the Rumor Buy the News

After the 09/18/24 U.S – FOMC announcement U.S stocks rallied then reversed and the three main U.S stock indices ended the session near the lows of the day. It looked like a classic example of “buy the rumor sell the news”. On 09/19/24 U.S. stock bulls other plans. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) chartContinue reading “Buy the Rumor Buy the News”