Author Archives: Mark Rivest

Gold Sentiment – November 2024

Commitment of Traders (COT) can be used to discover significant peaks/bottoms for several markets.  COT is not effective for all markets its most useful for commodities, Agriculture, Metals, and Energy.  COT is not a precise timing tool, most times it identifies broad time frames  where a turn could occur. The weekly Gold Futures chart courtesyContinue reading “Gold Sentiment – November 2024”

Gold – Elliott Wave Count – 11/14/24

Gold may have completed the first wave down of a multi-month decline. The daily Gold Futures Continuous contract courtesy of Trading View updates the action.  The Gold bull market from the October 2022 bottom appears to have made a Primary degree peak on 10/31/24.  October 2024  top  had a double bearish RSI divergence, and theContinue reading “Gold – Elliott Wave Count – 11/14/24”

U.S. Stock Market Momentum and Sentiment – 11/08/24

The 10/13/24 blog “ U.S. Stock Market Momentum and Sentiment – 10/11/24”  illustrated bearish evidence for both dimensions.  One month later the situation for one of the dimensions dramatically changed. The NYSE 52 – week highs chart courtesy of Barchart.com shows internal momentum. In early October 2024 there was a double bearish divergence for NYSEContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Momentum and Sentiment – 11/08/24”

Long – Term Elliott Wave Count for S&P 500 and Russell 2000

Comparison of the S&P 500 (SPX)  and Russell 2000 (RUT) could provide clues to what may happen in 2025. The weekly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the Elliott wave pattern from the October 2022 bottom.  The post October 2022 bull market is a textbook extended Elliott wave Impulse pattern.  This structure begins withContinue reading “Long – Term Elliott Wave Count for S&P 500 and Russell 2000”

  Trump Reelection – Catalyst for a Bull Market?

The day after the election of Donald Trump as the U.S. president in 2016 the S&P 500 (SPX) had a big rally which kicked off for a multi month bull market.  The day after Donald Trump’s reelection  in 2024 the SPX had a big rally.  Could this be the start of another multi month bullContinue reading ”  Trump Reelection – Catalyst for a Bull Market?”

Reaction to the U.S. Election

The U.S. November 05, 2024 election was historic and amazing.  The reaction of several markets was also historic and amazing. All three main U.S. stock indices made new all-time highs.  Precious metals had huge movements down. Bitcoin had a huge move up.  Long-term U.S. Treasury yields had huge up movements.   The daily S&P 500 (SPX)Continue reading “Reaction to the U.S. Election”

Russell 2000 – Impulse Down – Part Three

The 10/26/24 blog “Russell 2000 – Impulse Down – Part Two”  illustrated that the Russell 2000 (RUT) may have made an important short-term peak on 10/25/24.   Subsequently RUT moved above the 10/25/24 top and reached 2,260 on 10/30/24.  Momentum evidence continues to  suggest that RUT could reach the 2,000 area in one to two weeks.Continue reading “Russell 2000 – Impulse Down – Part Three”

S&P 500 and Bitcoin Relationship

On 10/31/24 both the S&P 500 (SPX) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced sharp declines; the drop could be heralding a bear market. The weekly BTCUSD chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its long-term momentum. During the last week of October 2024  BTCUSD may have completed a double top vs. its March 2024 peak.   Because the secondContinue reading “S&P 500 and Bitcoin Relationship”

The Birth of a Bull Market?

The 09/06/24 blog “U.S. Treasury Yield Update – 09/06/24” had these comments. “The other factor that could contribute to TYX trending lower is the U.S. FOMC interest rate decision on 09/18/24.  It’s widely expected that they will cut short-term interest rates by at least .25 basis points, perhaps more.  This could be a classic caseContinue reading “The Birth of a Bull Market?”