Mark Rivest

Underground Bear Market

An examination of 52 -week lows for U.S. stocks reveals a developing bear market. Looking just at the action of the main U.S. stock indices, the recent decline is minor. Viewing the new – 52 – week lows shows many U.S. stock are already in a bear market. The daily S&P (SPX) 500 chart courtesyContinue reading ” Underground Bear Market”

Fascinating Elliott Wave Patterns – 12/20/24

The S&P 500 (SPX) Elliott wave pattern suggest more downside action. The 30 – minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its presumed Elliott wave count since its all-time high on 12/06/24. The SPX since 12/06/24 appears to be developing a series of “one’s” and “two’s” to the downside. This is a very bearishContinue reading “Fascinating Elliott Wave Patterns – 12/20/24”

U.S. Stocks Ready to Bounce?

This websites prior blog noted the S&P 500 (SPX) had ended the 12/18/24 main session near two support levels. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The SPX on 12/19/24 failed to break below the upper line of the Ichimoku Cloud and chart support at 5.853.01. The 15 – minute SPXContinue reading “U.S. Stocks Ready to Bounce?”

Decisive Downside Break – 12/18/24

On 12/18/24 after the U.S. – FOMC decision the S&P 500 (SPX) decisively broke below the rising trendline connecting the 08/05/24 and 11/04/24 bottoms. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View examines the situation. Daily momentum indicators imply more downside action. Only one line of Stochastic has reached the oversold zone. RSI is inContinue reading “Decisive Downside Break – 12/18/24”

Gold Downside Forecast – December 2024

Gold could make a bottom very late in 2024 or early 2025. The daily Gold Continuous Futures (GC1!) courtesy of Trading View illustrates its action since March 2024. On 10/31/24 Gold Futures peaked at 2,801.20, the subsequent 10 – trading day decline was a five – wave Elliott Impulse pattern. If so, this couldContinue reading “Gold Downside Forecast – December 2024”

U.S. Interest Rates Surge Higher

With anticipation of a U.S. FOMC short -term rate cut next week, longer – term U.S. rates are rising. The weekly CBOE 30- Year Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long-term Elliott wave count. From March 2020 to October 2023 TYX rallied in a clear five wave extended Impulse pattern. Continue reading “U.S. Interest Rates Surge Higher”

Collapsing Nasdaq Momentum – December 2024

Momentum indicators imply the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) may have begun a decline of at least 10%. The daily IXIC chart courtesy of Trading View updates external momentum. This websites prior blog noted that IXIC had made a new all-time high without a daily RSI bearish divergence. On 12/11/ IXIC made a new high, RSI hadContinue reading “Collapsing Nasdaq Momentum – December 2024”

Rule of Majority Signal – December 2024

The U.S. stock market peaks in 2000, 2007, and 2022 occurred with only one of the three main U.S. stock indices making a new bull – market top. I call this phenomenon a “Rule of Majority” signal. The three main U.S. stock indices are the S&P 500 (SPX), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) and theContinue reading ” Rule of Majority Signal – December 2024″

Gold Update – 12/06/24

The 11/16/24 blog “Gold Sentiment – November 2024” noted that Gold could make at least an intermediate bottom by late December 2024 or early January 2025. As of 12/06/24 it appears Gold could continue trending lower. The weekly Gold futures chart courtesy of Barchart.com updates Gold sentiment. The Commitment of Traders (COT) tracks the netContinue reading “Gold Update – 12/06/24”

Tesla Revival

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) was lagging the broader U.S. stock market, now its emerging as a leader. This renewed strength could extend the rally in U.S. stocks. The main characteristic of the U.S. stock market in 2024 has been narrow leadership. While many stocks have failed to make new 52-week highs, a small minority, particularly theContinue reading ” Tesla Revival”