Mark Rivest

Bullish and Bearish S&P 500 Scenarios – 05/16/25

Elliott wave analysis reveals two courses the S&P 500 (SPX) could take in the coming weeks. On a bar chart the SPX rally after 04/07/25 has several Elliott wave interpretations. Using line charts sometimes clarifies the Elliott picture. In this case it reveals two possible scenarios. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustratesContinue reading “Bullish and Bearish S&P 500 Scenarios – 05/16/25”

Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25

There’s a high probability that the U.S. 30 – year Treasury Yield (TYX) has completed a multi- month Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle. The 05/11/25 blog “The Treasury Triangle” illustrated that TYX was probably forming an Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle since October 2023. These structures are sideways corrective patterns which sub divide into fiveContinue reading “Detailed Elliott Wave Count for U.S. 30 – Year Treasury Yield -05/16/25”

S&P 500 – Moving Average Update

The S&P 500 (SPX) has been above its 200 – day Simple Moving Average (SMA) all week. The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The move above the line on 05/12/25 was decisive and today 05/15/25 the SPX continued to move further above the line. Any short-term decline is likely toContinue reading “S&P 500 – Moving Average Update”

Trendline Breakthrough – 05/12/25

On 05/12/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke above the trendline, connecting the 04/09/25 and 05/02/25 peaks. The SPX also move above the 03/25/25 peak and the 200 – Simple Moving Average (SMA). The only significant factor that could be bearish is that the move up to new post 04/07/25 rally highs occurred on a FullContinue reading “Trendline Breakthrough – 05/12/25”

The Treasury Triangle

There is no predestination in Elliott Wave theory. The mass mind like the individual mind can change direction, there are always alternate Elliott wave counts. The CBOE 30 – Year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (TYX) may have completed a fascinating alternate Elliott wave count. The 02/02/25 blog “A Super Rally for U.S. Interest Rates?” noted.Continue reading “The Treasury Triangle”

Follow the Trendlines

Trendline analysis could identify the next significant S&P 500 (SPX) turn. The two – hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. Since 04/09/25 the SPX has been trading within a rising wedge which is typically bearish. The upper trendline intersects with the 03/25/25 peak on 05/12/25. Note that the two – hourContinue reading “Follow the Trendlines”

S&P 500 – Pushes Higher – 05/08/25

The prior blog “S&P 500 Rallies into the Heart of Resistance – 05/01/25” noted. “The 04/27/25 blog “Short-Term Outlook for U.S. Stocks – 04/25/25” illustrated that during the 2022 bear market SPX stocks above the 20 – day moving average during the March and August bear market rallies had readings above 90. The reading onContinue reading “S&P 500 – Pushes Higher – 05/08/25”

S&P 500 Rallies into the Heart of Resistance – 05/01/25

On 05/01/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied into a major resistance zone and then turned down. An important peak for U.S. stocks could be in place. The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com updates the action. This website prior blog illustrated SPX – Volume Profile and Fibonacci analysis illustrated that there was Volume Profile andContinue reading “S&P 500 Rallies into the Heart of Resistance – 05/01/25”

Rally into the Heart of Resistance?

The prior blog “Short-Term Outlook for U.S. Stocks – 04/25/25” noted “U.S. stocks could continue to rally into the week of 04/28/25 to 05/02/25”. An important peak for U.S. stocks could be made on 05/01/25. The hourly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. The Volume Profile method places volume onContinue reading “Rally into the Heart of Resistance?”

Short-Term Outlook for U.S. Stocks – 04/25/25

U.S. stocks could continue to rally into the week of 04/28/25 to 05/02/25. The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates the recent action. As of 04/25/25 only the upper line of the Slow Stochastic has reached the overbought zone which begins at 80.00. The lower line is at about 70.00. The readingContinue reading “Short-Term Outlook for U.S. Stocks – 04/25/25”