Crude Oil Update – 05/05/23

The 04/16/23 blog “Crude Oil Elliott Wave Pattern – 04/14/23” illustrated that a Primary degree bottom for Crude Oil was probably made at the 03/20/23 bottom.  About one week after that bottom Saudi Arabia announced an Oil production cut which pushed prices even higher.

The 04/16/23 blog noted “The current rally and potential rally later in 2023 are probably caused by a decrease in supply rather than an increase in demand.”

It looked like Crude Oil could very soon reach a near-term target in the 87.00 to 90.00 area.

The daily Crude Oil (CL2!) chart courtesy of Trading View shows what happened.

The subsequent drop to below the 03/20/23 bottom after a production cut is stunning!  Even with reduced supply prices fell.  This suggests that demand is weakening, and a global recession could be coming soon.

The daily Stochastic was oversold zone at the 05/04/23 bottom  and then had a bullish lines crossover.  There’s a good chance Crude Oil could rise for the next three weeks. 

The rally from 03/20/23 to 04/12/23 took 16 – trading days.   The decline from 04/13/23 to 05/04/23 was 15 – trading days.  The near equality in price and time of the rally and decline hints that an Elliott wave – Inverse Expanding Flat correction could be developing.  The current rally could end sometime in late May.

Crude Oil tends to make important tops after stocks have reached a significant peak.   If Crude Oil can rally into late May 2023, its possible U.S. stocks could top in early May 2023.


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Advantage,, and Finance Magnates.

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