The 04/16/23 blog “Crude Oil Elliott Wave Pattern – 04/14/23” illustrated that a Primary degree bottom for Crude Oil was probably made at the 03/20/23 bottom. About one week after that bottom Saudi Arabia announced an Oil production cut which pushed prices even higher.
The 04/16/23 blog noted “The current rally and potential rally later in 2023 are probably caused by a decrease in supply rather than an increase in demand.”
It looked like Crude Oil could very soon reach a near-term target in the 87.00 to 90.00 area.
The daily Crude Oil (CL2!) chart courtesy of Trading View shows what happened.
The subsequent drop to below the 03/20/23 bottom after a production cut is stunning! Even with reduced supply prices fell. This suggests that demand is weakening, and a global recession could be coming soon.
The daily Stochastic was oversold zone at the 05/04/23 bottom and then had a bullish lines crossover. There’s a good chance Crude Oil could rise for the next three weeks.
The rally from 03/20/23 to 04/12/23 took 16 – trading days. The decline from 04/13/23 to 05/04/23 was 15 – trading days. The near equality in price and time of the rally and decline hints that an Elliott wave – Inverse Expanding Flat correction could be developing. The current rally could end sometime in late May.
Crude Oil tends to make important tops after stocks have reached a significant peak. If Crude Oil can rally into late May 2023, its possible U.S. stocks could top in early May 2023.
Four Dimension Trading 