S&P 500 – Elliott Wave and Momentum Update – 03/31/23

 On 03/31/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied  close an important resistance zone. Its possible an important top may have been made on 03/31/23, momentum indicators suggest more upside action.

The daily SPX chart courtesy of BigCharts.com illustrates three momentum oscillators.

The Slow Stochastic is the most sensitive of the three indicators.  The upper line has reached the overbought zone  above 80%, while the lower line is just below 80%. This suggests a top could be made in one or two trading days.

The RSI was 62% on 03/31/23, the over bought zone for RSI begins at 70%.  The 62% reading implies at least one more week of upside action.

MACD is a slower moving oscillator, as of 03/31/23 both lines are rising with the upper line above the “zero” level.  Usually tops are indicated when the Histogram begins to have bearish divergences.  The MACD – Histogram is also still rising, suggesting at least one more week of higher prices.

The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the Elliott wave count.

The rally from the 03/13/23 bottom appears to be a developing Elliott wave – Double Zigzag pattern.   Its possible the pattern is complete as 03/31/23, however the daily momentum indicators are still bullish. 

The most likely time for an important top is either 04/11/23 or 04/12/23  – explained in the 03/29/23 blog “Possible Important U.S. Stock Market Top – April 2023”.  

The U.S. March CPI report is due out on 04/12/23.   


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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