Recently several national stock markets have exhibited bullish signals. One of the strongest upside markets is the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEI).
The daily PSEI chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its performance.
Since October 2022 the PSEI has outperformed the S&P 500 (SPX) by a wide margin.
From October to December the SPX had a 17% gain and is currently below its December high. The PSEI as of 01/20/23 has gained 24% and is above not only its December 2022 high but also its August 2022 top.
The recent sharp move above the declining trendline appears to be an Elliott third wave within a third wave. This is the most dynamic Elliott wave formation which could be the prelude to a PSEI move above its 2022 peak.
The PSEI February 2022 top was not the all-time high.
The weekly PSEI chart puts the current rally in the long – term perspective.
The PSEI bull move from the March 2020 crash bottom could be just the middle part of a large multi- year bear market that began at the all-time high in January 2018. If so the current bull phase may not make a new- all-time. A logical area for the next significant top is between 7,600 and 7,900. This zone corresponds with price cluster formed in December 2019 and January 2020.
If a top forms in the target zone, the next bear phase could go below the March 2020 bottom. The next bear market could last for two to three years. If the decline continues for three years it would bottom in 2026 which is a Fibonacci eight years after the all -time high in 2018.
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