S&P 500 – Fibonacci Time Connection Between 2010 and 2022

The 03/15/22 blog “S&P500 – Fibonacci Time Analysis 03-15-22” noted that there could be a Fibonacci time relationship between the S&P 500 (SPX) presumed Primary wave “2” decline April to June 2010 with the SPX January to March 2022  Primary wave “4” decline.  On 03/15/22 it looked like the SPX decline from 01/04/22  was an  Elliott wave – Ending Diagonal Triangle.  It now looks like  a different type of triangle was  forming.

The 30- minute SPX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the Elliott wave count.

There’s a high probability  that an  Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle ended on 03/14/22.

Horizontal Triangles are sideways corrective patterns that are composed of five sub waves in which each sub wave have three wave structures or a combination of three wave patterns.

Ending Diagonal Triangles  are motive  patterns  that travel in the direction of the main trend.  They are also composed of five sub waves in which each sub wave have three wave structures or a combination three wave patterns. 

Because each triangle pattern have five sub waves composed with three wave structures, they are frequently the alternate wave count for each other.  If you see what looks like a Horizontal Triangle it could an Ending  Diagonal Triangle.  Or the Ending Diagonal Triangle could be a Horizontal Triangle.   

The most amazing factor about the movement from 01/04/22 to 03/14/22 is the number of trading days (td) it took to complete.

The daily SPX chart illustrating the 2010 decline is the same chart used in the 03/15/22 blog.

The SPX – 2010 Primary wave “2” traveled 47 td exactly the same as the presumed Primary  wave “4”.  Incredible!

Primary wave “2” was a Single Zigzag.  Under the guidelines of alternation, you would expect wave “four” of the same degree to have a different corrective wave pattern.  In  this case it’s a Horizontal Triangle.

Additionally, Horizontal Triangles  only appear in the fourth wave position of motive patterns.

Primary wave “2” declined 17.1%.

The widest part of the presumed Primary wave “4” decline was 14.6%.

The ratio of wave 4/2 is 14.6/17.1 = 85.3% which tends toward equality.

There’s a very high probability that a post Horizontal Triangle wave  thrust up is under way from the 03/14/22 bottom and could reach its  termination point by late April/early May 2022.


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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