Important Cycle Point – 01-14-22

If the S&P 500 (SPX) bottom of 4614.75 made on 01/14/22 holds, it represents an important cycle point.

The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the best Elliott wave count.

It appears an Elliot wave – Running Horizontal Triangle may have completed on 01/14/22. In Running Horizontal Triangles – wave “B” slightly exceeds the point of origin of wave “A.” The most likely Fibonacci ratio of wave “B” to “A” is 1.236.  the next most likely ratio is 1.382.  In this Running Horizontal Triangle, the ratio of “B” to “A” is 1.30. 

The ratio of wave “A” to “C” is 1.05, near equality.

The ratio of wave “D” to “B” is .514, near .50.

After completion of Horizontal Triangles  there’s  usually a thrust in the direction of the primary trend, which in this case is up.  If a thrust up is underway as 01/14/22, it could last about a week and possibly reach  major Fibonacci resistance in the 4840 to 4890 range.  This  target was  first examined in the 11/10/21 blog “Possible S&P 500 – Price Topping Zone”.

The first FOMC meeting of 2022 is on 01/25/22 and 01/26/22.

If the SPX does not go up next week, a move  below the SPX bottom at 4495.12 made on 12/03/21 would invalidate  the Horizontal Triangle wave count.

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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