Common characteristics of corrective patterns is choppiness and slowness. The recent S&P 500 (SPX) 11/22/21 to 12/03/21 decline took approximately 58 – trading hours. The move up from the 12/03/21 bottom has retraced almost 80% of the decline in approximately 8 – hours.
The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the recent action.
The daily RSI has crossed above its moving average line – a bullish signal. Daily Stochastic had a bullish crossover on 12/02/21. So far both lines have yet to reach the overbought zone at 80%. The upper line as of 12/07/21 is at 77%. These momentum indicators imply the SPX could soon be making a new all-time high.
If the SPX can make a new high in December 2021 it could be the termination point for the entire secular bull market since March 2009.
The 08/22/20 blog “Forecast Bull Market Termination Date – 2021” examined an 89 – year Fibonacci time cycle targeting the year 2021 as a possible major turning point for US stocks.
The 10/24/21 blog “Possible US Stock Market Top – December 2021” examined a Fibonacci time cycle from 2009 targeting December 2021 as the termination point of the bull move since March 2009.
There’s also a narrower Fibonacci time cycle that targets 12/20/21 as the bullseye point for a bull market top. If the SPX can soon reach a new all-time high, a future blog will examine this time cycle.
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