Slow Move Down – Fast Move Up

Common characteristics  of corrective patterns is choppiness and slowness. The recent S&P 500 (SPX) 11/22/21 to 12/03/21 decline  took approximately 58 – trading  hours. The move up from the 12/03/21 bottom has retraced  almost 80% of the  decline  in approximately  8 – hours.  

The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View  illustrates  the  recent action.

The daily RSI has crossed above its moving average line – a bullish signal.  Daily Stochastic  had a bullish crossover on 12/02/21.  So far both lines  have yet to reach the overbought zone at 80%.  The upper line as  of 12/07/21  is  at 77%.   These  momentum indicators  imply the SPX could soon be making  a  new all-time high.

If the SPX can make a new high in  December 2021 it could be the termination point for the entire secular bull market since March 2009.

The 08/22/20 blog “Forecast Bull Market  Termination  Date – 2021” examined  an  89 – year Fibonacci time cycle  targeting  the year 2021 as  a  possible major turning  point for US stocks.

The 10/24/21 blog “Possible US Stock Market Top – December 2021”  examined  a  Fibonacci time  cycle from 2009  targeting  December 2021  as  the termination point of the bull move since March 2009.

There’s also  a narrower Fibonacci time cycle  that  targets  12/20/21 as the bullseye point for a bull market  top. If  the SPX can  soon reach  a  new all-time high, a  future blog will examine  this  time cycle.      

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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