Today 11/30/21 the S&P 500 (SPX) ended the month of November 2021 down 0 .94%. November is seasonally the most bullish month for US stocks – meaning it closes November higher than the open. From 2002 to 2020 the SPX November record is up fourteen times and down five times, a ratio of 5/19 or 74% up, 26% down.
The monthly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates three of the down Novembers.
Two of the five down Novembers came during the worst US stock bear market within the last fifty -years. The other three bearish Novembers from 2002 were only marginally down.
The daily SPX chart illustrate one of the potential Elliott wave counts since the early October 2021 lows.
This wave count begins at the slightly higher 10/06/21 bottom not at the primary bottom made on 10/04/21, which implies the supposed Intermediate wave (4) was truncated. The problem with truncated waves is that they usually can’t be confirmed until well after they’ve formed. In this case it would happen if the SPX failed to exceed the 11/22/21 high and then goes below the 10/04/21 bottom.
If this is the true Elliott wave count, it means a major SPX peak could be in place implying at least a multi-month decline.
On the bullish side of the coin, the SPX high made on 11/22/21 was not near a major Fibonacci price point. The Fibonacci time forecast is based upon a Fibonacci 21 – months since the March 2020 bottom. There is no leeway when using Fibonacci sequence numbers. November 2021 is 20 – months and is not a Fibonacci sequence number.
If the SPX rallies into December 2021 and peaks in the 4860 to 4890 range the Fibonacci time/price targets could be realized.
On an hourly chart the move down from the SPX 11/22/21 high looks corrective, if the 11/30/21 bottom holds it implies the next rally could reach at least the 11/22/21 high.
When markets have counter seasonal moves they can sometimes be warnings of a major trend change. This was what happened with a down November in 2007.
As we enter December 2021 the evidence does not yet indicate the US stock bull market is dead. It does appear to be severally wounded.