Category Archives: Sentiment

Sentiment – U.S. Stock Market – January 2026

Market sentiment can be measured in two ways; bets made by traders such as Put and Call options, or by polling.  Market Vane began polling market opinions in 1964. Their Bullish Consensus is the degree of bullish sentiment for a particular market. The Bullish Consensus is compiled by tracking the buy and sell recommendations ofContinue reading “Sentiment – U.S. Stock Market – January 2026”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – November 2025

Measuring market sentiment can determine when a trend could terminate. Market price peaks usually correspond with high bullish/optimistic sentiment.  In declining markets bottoms are near high bearish/pessimistic sentiment. Long and short-term U.S. stock market sentiment entering the November trading month are at historically high bullish levels.  The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of TradingContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – November 2025”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – October 2025

The 10/06/25 blog “Rising VIX and Rising Stocks” noted “The ideal condition for a major U.S. stock peak would be a higher VIX bottom and only one of the three main U.S. stock indices: SPX, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite making a new all-time high”. That was the condition on 10/10/25 when theContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – October 2025”

Rising VIX and Rising Stocks

For several weeks the Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 (SPX) have both been trending higher.  Could this be the prelude for an important SPX peak or another false sell signal. The daily SPX and VIX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates their relationship since May 2025. Normally VIX and SPX move in oppositeContinue reading “Rising VIX and Rising Stocks”

Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25

On 08/12/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) reached new all-time highs. This invalidates the bearish divergence made on 08/08/25 when IXIC made a new high unconfirmed by the SPX. Additionally, the VIX made a new post 04/07/25 low.  This invalidates the higher VIX bottom made on 08/08/25. The daily SPX, IXIC, andContinue reading “Bearish Divergences Invalidated – 08/12/25”

Sentiment Update – 08/08/25

The 08/03/25 blog “Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25” noted that when the S&P 500 (SPX) is making a significant peak the VIX forms a higher low. The daily SPX and VIX chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. SPX all-time high on 07/31/25 came with a marginally higher VIX bottom indicating a potentialContinue reading “Sentiment Update – 08/08/25”

Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25

NYSE – 52 – week highs and the VIX give bearish signals for the U.S. stock market. The VIX is very effective identifying S&P 500 (SPX) bottoms.  VIX spikes up at or near the completion of an SPX decline.  The situation is different when the SPX is reaching an important peak.  VIX signals a potentialContinue reading “Sentiment and Momentum Update – 08/01/25”

Bullish VIX Signal – 07/23/25

The 07/18/25 blog “U.S. Stock Bulls on Thin Ice – 07/18/25” noted that the VIX made a higher daily low vs. the S&P 500 (SPX) new all-time high – a bearish factor.  Also noted an additional bearish factor would be only one of the three main U.S. stock indices, SPX, Dow Jones Industrial Average, andContinue reading “Bullish VIX Signal – 07/23/25”

U.S Stock Bulls on Thin Ice – 07/18/25

Momentum and sentiment signals on 07/18/25 imply U.S. stock market bulls could soon be experiencing pain. The daily NYSE – 52 – week highs chart courtesy of Barchart.com updates internal U.S stock market momentum. On 07/03/25 the S&P 500 (SPX) made a new all-time high.  At the same time NYSE – 52 – week highsContinue reading “U.S Stock Bulls on Thin Ice – 07/18/25”