Category Archives: Momentum

S&P 500 First Wave Down Nearing Completion – 08/18/23

The 08/16/23 blog “S&P 500 – Downside Targets – 08/16/23”  noted. “A Fibonacci .236 retrace of October 2022 to July rally is near SPX 4,350.  The SPX closed 08/16/23 at 4,404 and could reach 4,350 on 08/17/23.” On the S&P 500 (SPX)  08/18/23 open it reached 4,350 and quickly bottomed out at 4,335.  Could thisContinue reading “S&P 500 First Wave Down Nearing Completion – 08/18/23”

Philippines and Vietnam Stock Markets Update – 08/17/23

The 07/15/23 blog “Philippine Stock Exchange an Elliott Wave Tutorial” illustrated that the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSEI) could be rising in an Elliott wave – Double Zigzag pattern. The daily PSEI chart courtesy of Trading View updates the action. About 85 to 90% of the time the second Zigzag of a Double Zigzag pattern willContinue reading “Philippines and Vietnam Stock Markets Update – 08/17/23”

S&P 500 – Downside Targets – 08/16/23

Today 8/16/23 the S&P 500 (SPX)  made a new decline low.  Fibonacci analysis provides clues to potential short-term support levels. The 08/15/23 blog illustrated that the SPX was in a declining wedge.   The 2- hour SPX chart courtesy of Trading View shows what happened to the wedge. The wedge is gone, and the SPX isContinue reading “S&P 500 – Downside Targets – 08/16/23”

S&P 500 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/10/23

The prior blog noted that if the S&P 500 (SPX) broke below the 08/09/23 bottom it could open the door for a move down to the SPX 4,385 to 4,410 area.  What happened was a marginal move below the 08/09/23 bottom and another bullish momentum divergence. The hourly SPX chart courtesy of Trading View examinesContinue reading “S&P 500 – Short – Term Elliott Wave Count – 08/10/23”

Breaking Bullish Momentum Divergences

When the main trend of a stock  index is up, multiple bullish momentum divergences usually signal an opportunity to go long.   When the main trend of a stock index is down, multiple bullish momentum divergences are frequently broken.  When this happens, it could open the door for more downside action. The one – hour S&PContinue reading “Breaking Bullish Momentum Divergences”

Examination of July to October Stock Market Declines

The have been three instances in the past twenty – five years when the S&P 500 (SPX) made an important top in July and an important bottom in October.  A study of these declines could provide clues to a potential SPX July to October 2023  drop. Market forecasting is similar to weather forecasting.   By studyingContinue reading “Examination of July to October Stock Market Declines”

      S&P 500 Breaks Another Support Level

Growing evidence indicates U.S stocks could be in a multi-week decline. The S&P 500 (SPX) 30 – minute chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the short-term view. Early in the 08/04/23 SPX  session stocks rallied on bullish economic news.  In a bullish trend the rally would likely continue until the end of the session orContinue reading ”      S&P 500 Breaks Another Support Level”

Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy

The recent Fitch downgrade of U.S. debt may have surprised some people.  For those following S&P 500 – stock sectors, it probably came as confirmation that  the U.S economy could be weakening.     The weekly S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View compares it to three stock sectors. The 07/16/23 blog “S&P 500 –Continue reading “Stock Market Downgrades U.S. Economy”

Fitch Downgrade

Fitch Rating on 08/01/23  downgraded its U.S. debt rating from “AAA” to “+AA” which  reflects expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years.  The downgrade triggered a sharp drop in U.S. stocks.  The daily S&P 500 (SPX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the action. The 08/02/23 decline broke below the 07/27/23 “Key Reversal” bottomContinue reading “Fitch Downgrade”