Author Archives: Mark Rivest

U.S. Stock Market – Internal Momentum – 07/28/23

Stock market momentum can be measured two ways, externally or internally.  Momentum oscillators such as RSI and Stochastic are external indicators.  Internal momentum examines what’s happening under the surface of price – Advance/Decline lines and new highs/lows. This blogs looks at two internal indicators for the U.S. stock market.  52 – week highs and theContinue reading “U.S. Stock Market – Internal Momentum – 07/28/23”

Rising Long – Term Interest Rates – 07/27/23

The 07/26/23 blog “Money Goes Where it is Treated Best” noted that the FOMC raising short-term interest rates could cause stock fund managers to sell stocks in favor of a nearly risk-free return.   A rise in long-term interest rates/yields could be averse to stocks. The 07/08/23 blog “Examination of Long and Short-Term Interest Rates”  illustratedContinue reading “Rising Long – Term Interest Rates – 07/27/23”

Money Goes Where it is Treated Best

Today 07/26/23 the U.S. FOMC raised short-term interest rates by 25 basis points from 5.25% to 5.50%.  This increases the temptation of stock fund managers to sell a portion of their stock holdings and get a nearly risk-free return.  It’s possible this behavior has been occurring for several weeks which may explain why several S&PContinue reading “Money Goes Where it is Treated Best”

Tesla Inc. Massive Momentum Divergences

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) could be in the beginning of deep and sharp decline. Prior to TSLA’s all-time high in November 2021 it was a leading stock in the bull market that began in March 2020.  More recently since early 2023 TSLA has resumed its market leadership role.  If TSLA begins a large decline there’s aContinue reading “Tesla Inc. Massive Momentum Divergences”

Momentum and Sentiment Evidence – 07/21/23

Strong evidence from the dimensions of momentum and sentiment indicate an important U.S. stock market top may have been made on 07/20/23. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) on 07/20/23 was the only one of the three main U.S. stock indices to make a new post October 2022 rally high. The daily DJI, S&P 500Continue reading “Momentum and Sentiment Evidence – 07/21/23”

The July 20th Topping Phenomenon

Occasionally significant S&P 500 (SPX) tops have occurred in July.  During the past 25 – years there have been five instances of  SPX important  July peaks.  These prior July tops provide fascinating clues to a potential SPX 2023 high. First a review of the potential time cycle turn that was due late June to earlyContinue reading “The July 20th Topping Phenomenon”

U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 07/19/23

As the S&P 500  makes new post October 2022 rally highs the VIX remains above its most recent bottom made on 06/22/23. The daily VIX chart courtesy of Trading View updates its action. The VIX failing to make a new low with the SPX making new rally highs is a potential topping signal for U.S.Continue reading “U.S. Stock Market Sentiment – 07/19/23”

S&P 500 – Sector Analysis

State Street SPDR divides the S&P 500 into 11 – sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETF).  An examination of two of the sector ETF’s and one sub sector reveals insights to the broader U.S.  stock market and economy. The weekly Financial sector ETF – (XLF) and Technology sector ETF – (XLK) chart courtesy of Trading ViewContinue reading “S&P 500 – Sector Analysis”

Philippines Stock Exchange an Elliott Wave Tutorial

The movements of the Philippines Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) in 2023 have been textbook Elliott wave patterns. The daily PSEI chart courtesy of Trading View provides lessons in learning the Elliott wave theory. The first step in Elliott analysis is breaking price movements into segments.  In this case the first segment to examine is theContinue reading “Philippines Stock Exchange an Elliott Wave Tutorial”