The 06/08/26 blog “Record of Diminishing Fear” illustrated that since 2020 – S&P 500 (SPX) bear moves have gotten progressively smaller.
This amazing phenomenon has continued as shown in the monthly SPX chart courtesy of Trading view.
In early June 2026 it looked like the April 2026 decline of only 9.8% was the smallest possible retracement. Wrong! Market participants have learned “buy the dip”. The most recent drop was merely 5.1% before blasting to new highs.
This phenomenon has probably lulled investors/traders into complacency.
There’s an old saying “When you think you’ve got the keys to the market, they change the locks”.
The weekly SPX illustrates a possible time cycle.
Broader U.S. stock market seasonal patterns are bearish from April to October, with important bottoms being made in October.
The potential Eighteen – month time cycle shows the SPX is deep in the down phase of the cycle. Please note the significant weekly RSI bearish divergence.
The lateness of seasonal and time cycles, combined with weakening upside momentum implies a fast and deep decline.
It’s possible SPX could drop 20 to 25% into an October 2026 bottom.
Four Dimension Trading 