December 4, 2025, an S&P 500 Peak?

The 11/23/25 blog “Is History Repeating” illustrated the similarities between the S&P 500 (SPX) decline in November 2021 and November 2025 and noted.

 “Intraday momentum supports the bullish scenario.  The 30 – minute RSI has several bullish divergences implying that the selling is exhausted.  There’s a good chance SPX could rally in the next few trading days”.

Subsequently there was a sharp rally during the week of 11/24/25 to 11/28/25.  Daily momentum evidence also shows that the SPX late 2025 action is like early 2025.

The daily $SPX – StockCharts.com chart compares early 2025 with late 2025. 

Note that in November 2025, for the first time since April – MACD lines have gone below the “zero” level.  Prior to this instance, MACD lines were below “zero” in early 2025. On 01/16/25 MACD lines had a bullish cross, five trading days later SPX made a short-term peak.

On 11/26/25 MACD lines had a bullish cross.  Daily Slow Stochastic lines on that day had yet to reach the overbought zone above 80.00 which implies more upside-price action.

Five trading days after 11/26/25 targets 12/04/25 as a potential SPX peak.

The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View shows additional reasons why a peak could be made on 12/04/25.

The 11/01/25 blog “Bullish Pieces of an Elliott Wave Puzzle” illustrated that the 1.618 inverse Fibonacci ratio of the February to April decline targeted SPX 6,958.48 as a potential important peak.  If the SPX continues to rise it could easily reach this level on 12/04/25.   

Markets can occasionally turn on Full/New Moons plus or minus two trading days.  The 10/06/25 blog noted a Full Moon on 10/07/25, the SPX peaked on 10/09/25.  The next trading day there was a micro crash. 

On 11/20/25 there was a New Moon.  The next trading day, 11/21/25, SPX bottomed out.

12/04/25 is a Full Moon and if the SPX rises into this date, it would be eight – trading days after the 11/21/25 bottom.  On 01/13/25 SPX bottomed out, eight days later SPX peaked on 01/24/25.

Please note the late January 2025 top was not the ultimate peak, which occurred on 02/19/25.  If this scenario repeats in December 2025, the final top may not be in place until the cusp of the new year.