Cycle Top Due on May 5, 2023

Since May of 2019 there has been an effective Fibonacci time cycle connecting three S&P 500 (SPX) peaks.  The cycle is 336 – trading days, approximately 16 – months. The cycle is  based on the Fibonacci time ratio of equality 1/1. 

The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the cycle.

Using the next full moon date 05/05/23 as the anchor and projecting back 336 trading days targets 01/03/22.  There was a new moon on 01/02/22, the SPX bull market top was on 01/04/22.  This is also an example of a turn on the cusp of a new year.

Projecting back 336 trading days from 01/03/22 targets 09/02/20.  There was a full moon on 09/01/20.  A short – term top was made on 09/02/20.  This is also an example of the start of a seasonal September to October correction within a bull market.

Projecting back 336 trading days from 09/02/20 targets 05/06/19.  There was a new moon on 05/04/19.  A short – term top was made on 05/01/19.  The bullish season ends in early May.  Sometimes the subsequent decline only lasts one or two months.  In this case one month.

Time cycles can forecast either a market top or bottom.  It depends on the market action going into the cycle date that determines a potential top or bottom.   The powerful rally off the 04/26/23 bottom is likely to continue into next week.

On 05/03/23 the FOMC will make their next interest rate announcement.  The rally after 04/26/23 is likely in anticipation of bullish news.   Sometimes market turns occur a few trading days after an FOMC announcement.  On 02/02/23 the SPX made a top one day after the FOMC announcement.

Market turns can sometime occur on or near new/full moons.

The bullish seasonal period for stocks ends late April/early May.

The stage is being set for what could be a significant SPX top on or near May 5, 2023.


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Advantage,, and Finance Magnates.

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