Dow Jones Industrial Average – Elliott Wave Count – 04/06/23

The prior blog posted on 04/06/23 illustrated that the S&P 500 (SPX) could soon complete an Elliott wave – Inverse Horizontal Triangle.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) also appears to be near the termination point of an Inverse Horizontal Triangle. 

The daily DJI chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates its Elliott wave count.

Horizontal Triangles are corrective patterns within a bull trend.  Inverse Horizontal Triangles are corrective patterns in a bear trend.

The presumed DJI – Inverse Horizontal Triangle point of origin is the 02/24/22 bottom.  The SPX -Inverse Horizontal Triangle point of origin is the 06/17/22 bottom.  Even though there are differences between the two indices patterns, they both appear to be nearing completion on or around 04/12/23.

The Fibonacci relationships among the DJI – Inverse Horizontal Triangle are as follows.

Minor wave “A” is almost equal to Minor wave “D”.

Both Minor waves “A” and “D” are almost .50 of Minor wave “B”.

The presumed developing Minor wave “E” could reach .382 of Minor wave “B”.  This potential relationship will be illustrated in the DJI – 15 – minute chart.

Recently the DJI has underperformed the SPX and may not reach the declining trendline connecting Minor waves “A” and “C”.  The DJI more likely could reach the area of the blue declining trendline.

The 30 – minute DJI chart zooms in on the action from December 2022.

The DJI rally off the 03/13/23 bottom is the presumed developing Minor wave “E”.  The move up appears to be an Elliott wave – Double Zigzag.  If so the next rally could complete the pattern.

The blue declining trendline is now in the 34,000 area which is also in a zone of chart resistance.

Also, nearby is the Fibonacci .618 retracement level of the DJI – January to October 2022 decline.  The exact point is 33,784.

The 15 – minute DJI chart focuses on the activity from late March 2023.

The sideways pattern after the Minuette wave (a) top appears to be a Horizonal Triangle!  If this Horizontal Triangle – Minuette wave (b) is complete, the next move could be a thrust up.  Typically, a post Horizontal Triangle trust can be measured by the widest part of the triangle.  In this case its Sub Minuette wave “a” which was 359 points, added to the low Sub Minuette wave “e” at 33,436 targets 33,795.  The Fibonacci .618 retracement of the January to October drop is at 33,784.     

Above these close coordinates is the declining blue trendline near 34,000.  Just above the trendline is where Minor wave “E” could be .382 of Minor wave “B”.  The calculation is – Minor wave “B” 6,832 x .382 = 2,609 + Minor wave “D”  31,429 = 34,038.

The broad resistance zone of 33,750 to 34,050 could be reached in the next few trading days.