Long – Term Elliott Wave Count For 10 – year U.S Treasury Rates

The 10/23/22 blog “Intermediate Top For Interest Rates” noted “If US interests rates decline it could be a catalyst for a multi- week rally in  US stocks”.  Subsequently the rates/yields for 10 and 30 – year U.S Government bonds/notes declined and U.S stocks rallied.   There could soon be another decline for 10 and 30 – year U.S Government interest rates/yields.

The weekly CBOE- 10 year Treasury Note Yield (TNX) chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the long-term Elliott wave count since March 2020.

TNX since March of 2020 has rallied in the form of a textbook extended Elliott wave impulse pattern.  Note the recent Stochastic lines bear cross in the over bought zone, this implies at least a multi-week decline may have begun.  If so it’s  probably part of a developing Intermediate wave (4).  Wave “four’s” usually travel to the area of the fourth wave of one degree lower.  In this case it’s the presumed Minor wave “4” – the June to August 2022 decline.

Because this is an incomplete extended impulse pattern the Fibonacci retracement calculation is made from where the extension began, which in this case the bottom made in August 2020 – Primary wave “2” – boxed.  The progress being retraced is the area within the presumed  developing  Primary wave “3”.  The target area for Intermediate wave (4) is the area around 2..862.

Trendline analysis could provide a clue as to when a probable TNX decline terminates.  The weekly rising trendline from March 2020 crosses the area of the .382 retracement in early May 2023.  The bullish season for stocks usually ends around late April to early May.


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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