Long-Term Elliott Wave Count for Gold

The action of Gold in the last several months suggests it could be basing for a large bull market that could extend far beyond 2023.  The long -term view of Gold gives us a starting point of what could develop in the coming months and years. 

The monthly Gold chart courtesy of Trading View shows the long-term view.  The Trading View symbol for this chart is XAUUSD – gold in U.S dollars.  On the symbol search there are several listings for XAUUSD.  The chart illustrated here is described as GOLD and has data back to 1969.

The peak made in September 2011 could either be Cycle wave “III” or Primary wave “1” – boxed.  The reason the 2011 top could be the lower degree Primary wave “1” is because the subsequent bear market only lasted 4 – years.  The presumed Cycle wave “II” bear market lasted a colossal 19- years.  If the 2011 to 2015 decline is Cycle wave “IV”, the time ratio of 4 to 19 is unusually small for waves of the same degree.  For the next 1 or 2 years both wave counts have the same message – a move above the all-time high made in August 2020.  If the September 2011 top was Primary wave “1” it implies a much larger and longer Gold bull market that could continue into the next decade.

The most intriguing aspect on the chart is the possible “Cup with handle” formation after the 2011 peak.  The presumed handle is more elaborate than usual.  A significant move above the double top made in August 2020 and March 2022 could signal the beginning of a strong bull move.   

MACD has not yet had a bullish lines cross.  RSI is in the neutral zone.  Stochastic has a bearish lines crossover yet is still in the neutral zone, suggesting only a short-term decline.

The next Gold blog will focus on the Elliott wave count from the September 2011 top to February 2023.    


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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