At the Bear Panic Point

Today 0/12/23 the S&P 500 (SPX) broke above Fibonacci resistance in the 3,970 area then reached the bear panic point close to 4,000.  While short-term momentum continues to suggest a small decline, longer-term momentum implies  a rally that could last for several weeks.

The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading  View  updates the action.

The SPX ended the trading session at 3,983.16, the 200 – day moving average (MA) is at 3,984.39 and almost  the same level as the declining trendline from the January 2022 top. 

The bears could be trying to push back right at the panic point, however other U.S stock indices had stronger performances than the SPX.

On the session the SPX gained .34%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite both gained .64%.

The Russell 2000 (RUT) – small cap stocks gained 1.74% – five times the SPX gains.  It would be unusual if an important top was forming with small cap stocks outperforming the SPX by such a wide margin.  Near-term the SPX could have a short – term drop.  However, the performance of  other U.S stock indices, especially  RUT suggest the rally could continue until at least  late January or early February.   

Another national stock market index is also showing signs its rally could continue. 

The weekly  UK 100 (UKX)  chart illustrates its longer-term picture.

The UKX was the subject of the 01/08/23 blog “UK 100 Upside Breakthrough”.  Since then, UKX has had additional upside breakthroughs.  It has moved above the peaks made in July 2019 and August 2018 and is now only 1.3% below its all-time high.

If the UKX  makes a new all-time high it could aid in the timing of a  global stock market top sometime in the first quarter of 2023.

The UKX index is a must watch indicator for traders/investors worldwide!

Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: