Possible S&P 500 – Full Moon Bottom 04-18-22

There was a Full Moon on Saturday 04/16/22, using a leeway of plus two trading days  targeted  either 04/18/22 or 04/19/22 for a possible S&P 500 (SPX) bottom. On 04/18/22 the SPX made a new low of the decline that began on 03/29/22. The low for the day was 4370.30, main Fibonacci support noted in prior blogs  is at 4344.01 which is a .618 retracement of the 03/14/22 to 03/29/22 rally.  If there’s a short-term bottom at 4370.30 it opens the possibility of an alternate Elliott wave count.

The daily SPX chart courtesy of Trading View illustrates the alternate count.

Its possible that the Elliott wave – Horizontal Triangle that prior blogs noted may have terminated at the 03/14/22 bottom could still be under construction. 

For the sake of simplicity and clarity all  Intermediate degree waves are illustrated with Single Zigzag  patterns.

What makes this alternate count a possibility are the Fibonacci price and time relationships among the Intermediate degree waves. 

Within Horizontal Triangles  the most common  Fibonacci relationships are  between alternate waves. For example, Intermediate wave (A) has a relationship with Intermediate wave (C), Intermediate wave (B) has a relationship with Intermediate wave (D).

The length of Intermediate wave (A) is 703.97 x .382 equals 268.91.

The Intermediate wave (B) high is 4637.30 – 268.91 equals 4368.39 close to the 04/18/22 low at 4370.30.

There’s a secondary Fibonacci coordinate using the length of Intermediate wave (B) of 527.65 x .50 equals 261.32.  4637.30 – 261.32 equals  4375.98.

There’s also a potential Fibonacci time relationship.

Intermediate wave (A) from 01/04/22 to 02/24/22 was approximately 35 – trading days or 490 – 30 – minute trading bars.  The decline of the presumed Intermediate wave (C) so far has lasted approximately 13 – trading days or 182 – 30 – minute trading bars.

The time ratio of (C ) to (A) is 182/490 equals .371 close to the Fibonacci ratio of .382.

Traders are long 50% SPX related non-leverage funds at the SPX open on 04/18/22.  Continue holding long.


Published by Mark Rivest

Independent investment advisor, trader, and writer. Articles have appeared on Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities , Traders.com Advantage, Futuresmag.com, and Finance Magnates.

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